The people of Bangladesh are almost evenly split on whether the Awami League should be allowed to participate in the upcoming national parliamentary elections, revealing a deep political fissure at a critical juncture for the country, according to the latest People’s Election Pulse Survey (PEPS).
The survey found that 45.8% of citizens believe all parties should be given the opportunity to contest the elections.
However, a nearly identical percentage, 45.6%, believe the Awami League should not be allowed to participate before facing a trial.
Compared to the first round of the survey in March, opposition to Awami League’s participation has grown.
The most dramatic divide emerges between the general population and the country’s educated youth.
Among university students and respondents from academic institutions, a overwhelming 63.1% believe the Awami League must face trial before any electoral participation.
In stark contrast, only 43.7% of the general household respondents hold this view, with a plurality (47.7%) favoring inclusion for all parties.
The analysis also uncovers significant regional polarization in attitudes toward the Awami League’s participation in the national election.
In Rajshahi (55.3%) and Chittagong (50.6%), a majority of respondents expressed opposition to the party’s inclusion before facing trial, reflecting strong skepticism in these divisions.
Conversely, Barisal emerged as the most supportive region, with 58.5% backing Awami League’s participation and only 34.7% opposing it—marking both the highest level of support and the lowest level of resistance recorded in the survey.
Further demographic trends reveal notable divides in public opinion.
A clear gender gap emerges, with 49.0% of men supporting the “trial first” position compared to 41.6% of women.
Age also plays a significant role: opposition to the Awami League’s participation is strongest among the youngest voters, with Gen Z registering 49.0%, and gradually decreases with older age groups.
An urban-rural split is also evident, as 48.4% of urban respondents oppose Awami League’s participation before trial, compared to 44.3% of rural respondents, highlighting sharper skepticism in urban areas.
With the nation cleaved almost directly in half on this fundamental question, the issue of the Awami League’s eligibility is poised to be a central and deeply contentious theme in the lead-up to the elections.
The findings suggest that any decision regarding the party’s participation will be met with significant support and significant opposition, with profound implications for the election’s perceived legitimacy.