Politics, defined as the principles of state governance, is a collective expression of philosophy, society, and economy. While politics is a branch of social science, today, it has become more complex than mathematics. Strategies are no longer based on ideals, but on additions and subtractions—profits and losses. The political situation in Bangladesh is entangled in this maze of plus and minus. Ahead of the upcoming national election, a complex arithmetic of strategy is unfolding. Analysts argue that political parties have already used these calculations before the polls to press the government with various demands.
This arithmetic has turned Jamaat-e-Islami against its long-time ally, the BNP. Setting aside ideological differences, Jamaat is trying to forge alliances with other Islamist parties.
Jamaat’s strategy is based on a “three-minus formula.” First, it aims to isolate BNP in the political field. For 16 years, BNP has built an anti-Awami League alliance, and Jamaat seeks to break those ties. If it can detach BNP’s allies in the simultaneous movement, Jamaat will gain an advantageous position in the polls. Second, Jamaat wants to sideline the Jatiya Party. Jamaat would benefit if the Jatiya Party is banned or fails to participate in the election. Third, Jamaat intends to push progressive, left-leaning democratic parties out of the electoral race. This is why Jamaat demands that the Awami League-led 14-party alliance be banned. They believe that if these three “minuses” succeed, they will stand favorably in the next election.
Jamaat, being a well-organized party, operates with long-term planning. Strategically, it has built a powerful student wing, Shibir, within the student community and extended its networks across educational institutions, administration, and even the judiciary. Yet, despite such organizational depth, Jamaat continues to lag in electoral contests. The core reason is that it lacks popularity among ordinary voters. A party may have loyal cadres, but it cannot win an election without the silent majority’s support. Moreover, Jamaat’s organizational strength is uneven across the country. Its stronghold is concentrated in about 20 districts, with a weak presence elsewhere. Out of 300 constituencies, Jamaat’s candidates may attract attention in about 120; beyond that, their chances remain limited.
One advantage Jamaat enjoys, however, is its ability to read ground realities with pragmatism. This is why it has been pushing for Proportional Representation (PR). In such a system, where seats are allocated based on the percentage of votes received, Jamaat would benefit significantly.
PR has its dangers. It fosters authoritarianism within parties, as candidate selection depends on party leadership rather than voter choice. In practice, this undermines democracy because, without democracy within parties, no democracy can thrive in the state. Every constituency has its own needs and problems; voters often choose candidates based not only on party loyalty but also on their personal capacity, integrity, and local involvement. The PR system ignores this, diminishes voters’ will, and elevates party dominance, making it contradictory to genuine democracy.
Bangladesh’s constitutional framework does not allow PR either. Jamaat has raised this issue mainly for two reasons: to divert attention from the election and to keep BNP under long-term pressure. Thus, Jamaat’s electoral strategy is largely a “minus formula.”
On the other hand, the BNP is campaigning with a “plus formula,” aiming to establish participatory and inclusive democracy. To this end, the party is working to build electoral unity with like-minded groups and has promised a coalition government if it wins.
Respect for smaller parties is one of the defining features of BNP’s “plus politics.” The party intends to continue with the allies it has stood beside for 16 years. BNP seeks to restore a healthy political culture. Its acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, has repeatedly stressed the importance of maintaining unity among parties—“We must never stop talking to each other.” BNP rejects the politics of repression and elimination.
However, BNP’s “plus politics” faces two hurdles. First, the behavior of some grassroots activists has tarnished BNP’s image among the public. A recent innovation survey shows that BNP’s popularity dipped slightly compared to March. The leadership’s liberal democratic rhetoric is not effectively reaching the grassroots. Meanwhile, confusion arises from the ruling side’s propaganda, forcing BNP to spend more time defending itself than promoting its own agenda. In this regard, Jamaat has managed to push BNP onto the back foot.
Second, Jamaat’s constant shifting of the goalposts prevents BNP from focusing on its positive programs. Instead of promoting its 31-point reform agenda, widely seen as a blueprint for national consensus, BNP is often forced to debate issues like PR, constitutional protection, and the implementation of the July Declaration. The “plus politics” can only succeed if BNP can quickly re-center its narrative on its positive vision.
Beyond BNP and Jamaat, two more “minus strategies” are active in Bangladesh’s politics. The first is driven by forces working for depoliticization. They want to complicate the current political situation to prevent elections altogether. Their leadership includes a section of civil society—the same actors who engineered the 2007 unelected caretaker government. Since BNP is now the country’s primary opposition, they believe sidelining BNP would pave the way for prolonged unelected rule. This explains the ongoing smear campaigns against the BNP.
The second “minus formula” is being pursued by fallen autocrats. As they remain banned and have no chance of joining the election under current realities, they are instead trying to sabotage the electoral process altogether.
In the end, the future of Bangladesh rests on the outcome of this plus-minus political game. If the “plus” strategy prevails, the country may see the return of healthy democracy. If the “minus” forces win, the dreams of the July revolution will die, and Bangladesh will again enter a dark tunnel.
Audite Karim is a writer and playwright. Email: [email protected]
Bd-pratidin English/ Jisan