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Speaking at an “Investment Dialogue with Local Partners” hosted by Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA), he cautioned that blindly adopting global lenders’ recommendations could push the exchange rate to Tk 170–180 per US dollar, mirroring situations in Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Energy Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan attended the event as chief guest.
Dr. Mansur projected that inflation will decline to 5 percent by the end of FY2025-26, creating scope for reducing the policy rate to 8–9 percent and lending rates to 10–11 percent.
However, he warned that lowering interest rates before curbing inflation would put pressure on both the exchange rate and the money market—an issue raised by businesses seeking cheaper loans.
He noted that Bangladesh’s economic fundamentals differ from those of India and China, where interest rates remain much lower due to domestic conditions.
Clarifying the status of IMF disbursements, the governor said Bangladesh is currently not accepting loan instalments because certain conditions cannot yet be fulfilled.
“When necessary, we will take IMF funds after meeting the required conditions,” he said.
Addressing concerns about data distortion in the financial sector, Dr. Mansur said the sector has moved away from practices that once masked economic vulnerabilities.
Inflation, shown officially in single digits under the previous regime, was actually around 12–13 percent, he said. Defaulted loans, officially reported below 10 percent, were closer to 35 percent as of September 2025. Corrections have since been made to current accounts and reporting practices.
On recovering defaulted loans, the governor said industries should not be penalized for individual mismanagement.
He cited the SS Power Plant of S. Alam Group; an $2.5 billion project, 80 percent foreign-owned, which continues operations with Bangladesh Bank’s support for LC openings. Although the plant is running, profits will be diverted entirely toward repaying liabilities.
Bangladesh Bank has so far received 1,300 applications for loan restructuring and approved 250.
The rest have been forwarded to banks for case-by-case assessment.
Dr. Mansur expects defaulted loans to decline by 5 percent by March FY2025-26 but said restoring non-performing loans to a sustainable level may take up to a decade.
The dialogue also featured Lutfey Siddiqi, Special Envoy to the Chief Adviser on International Affairs and NBR Chairman Mohammad Abdur Rahman Khan, with BEZA and BIDA Executive Chairman Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun presiding.
SH