THE political landscape of Bangladesh has been characterised by uncertainty and fragmentation for most, if not all, of its history, shaped from the very outset of its independence in 1971 following a historic victory over West Pakistan. Such uncertainty and fragmentation in the political environment have escalated significantly over the past one and a half decades, largely due to the process of depoliticisation and its consequences under an authoritarian regime masquerading as a hollow or bubble democracy, orchestrated by the Bangladesh Awami League and its purported alliances. However, the July 2024 mass uprising that deposed the previous tyrannical regime inspired the potential to bring about stability and consensus within the national political landscape. Nonetheless, the months and years that have passed since July 2024 indicate that such novel hopes and aspirations remain highly ambitious and continue to appear as little more than a distant dream for many. As a result, a crucial question of unity versus fragmentation currently lies at the heart of contemporary politics in Bangladesh and is likely to persist in the years ahead.
Bangladesh is at a turning point in its history due to economic challenges, dysfunctional democracy and socio-cultural upheavals. Its political destiny is being shaped by the ongoing contradiction between the aspiration for national unity and the reality of political fragmentation. Nevertheless, there may still be grounds for cautious optimism, even amid the many uncertainties confronting the nation. Bangladesh was not only born out of a unifying struggle, but is also a resilient and courageous nation with a proud and glorious past. For instance, the unifying spirit that shaped the nation emerged through the language movement of 1952, the 1969 mass uprising, the liberation war of 1971, the anti-dictatorship movement of the 1990s, and finally the July 2024 mass uprising against fascism, all of which forged a strong sense of collective identity rooted in linguistic, cultural and political rights. Unity during these periods was grounded in a shared vision of emancipating the masses from political, economic, social and cultural marginalisation. Nonetheless, concerns about political fragmentation have repeatedly resurfaced, obstructing the nation’s progress and weakening the promise of democratic consolidation.
Notably, following the July 2024 mass uprising, national politics in Bangladesh became abruptly fractured, giving rise to numerous competing narratives that rendered the political landscape increasingly volatile and unpredictable. To some extent, several of these narratives were not part of the July Revolution’s original agenda, and their continued articulation has introduced both liberal and extremist tendencies into Bangladesh’s current political environment. The absence of the previously dominant political party, the Bangladesh Awami League, alongside the emergence of a new party, the NCP, and the continued prominence of two other major parties, the BNP and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, together with many smaller parties, has fostered entrenched political polarisation. In such a context, politics often turns into a zero-sum contest, where an electoral defeat in Bangladesh is perceived as an existential loss rather than as a legitimate democratic alternative. Consequently, functional democracy, nurtured through healthy competition and mutual tolerance, has been largely absent in Bangladesh for decades.
The lack of institutionalised democracy within political parties and across various state institutions has created a situation in which personal and party interests frequently take precedence over national objectives, perpetuating a persistent cycle of uncertainty in democratic governance. Even in situations that demand consensus, the major political parties regularly fail to cooperate on matters of national interest. More often than not, the national parliament is used as a platform for confrontation, disruption or abstention rather than as a forum for addressing pressing national concerns. The credibility and legitimacy of democracy are further weakened by disputed elections, allegations of manipulation and the systematic silencing of dissenting voices. Such fragmentation among major political parties leads many citizens to believe that they are being marginalised and excluded from their rightful participation in the institutionalisation of democracy. Restrictions imposed on the media, civil society and critical voices have contributed to political apathy, particularly among young people and ordinary citizens. Achieving political unity becomes increasingly difficult when ruling parties and their incumbents constrain freedom of expression and obstruct the political activities of the opposition.
Uneven economic growth over the years has failed to benefit all social groups equally, giving rise to deep and often entrenched inequalities. Particularly under the previous regime, rent-seeking practices intensified alarmingly, resulting in the transfer of vast sums of money abroad. Several additional factors—such as rising living costs, prolonged unemployment, widespread corruption, lack of accountability, institutional weakness and spatial inequalities—have contributed to social, cultural and economic fragmentation, which has converged with existing political divisions and further deepened the overall crisis.
However, the other side of these fragmentations and uncertainties may also offer the possibility of renewed hope and unity in Bangladesh’s political future. The mass uprising of July 2024, which effectively overthrew a tyrannical regime, marks a decisive and historic moment, signalling the potential for a fundamental shift away from the country’s debased political system. Political parties and any future government must therefore exercise greater responsibility in safeguarding public welfare and engaging in ethical and democratic political practices. The lesson of unity may emerge from the collective experience of the July 2024 movement, where unity is increasingly articulated in political discourse through ideas of nationalism, development and stability. Yet genuine national unity must be grounded in pluralism, an independent judiciary, tolerance and trust in institutions. There remain possibilities for overcoming present uncertainties and fragmentation, despite political diversity. A democratic society does not require unanimous agreement; rather, it depends on the peaceful coexistence of diverse perspectives within shared ethical, legal and constitutional boundaries.
Several additional factors highlighted by the July 2024 movement also point towards the potential for optimism and greater stability in national politics. Bangladesh possesses a large, dynamic and energetic youth population. Although many young people are disillusioned with conventional party politics, they are increasingly participating through digital platforms, social movements and issue-based activism. Their demands—centred on employment opportunities, fairness, transparency and dignity—have the potential to transform the political landscape beyond traditional party loyalties. Moreover, despite external pressures and repeated attempts to control civilian voices, Bangladesh continues to maintain a tradition of vibrant civil society engagement, relatively active media and intellectual debate. As a result, both future governments and their opposition forces are likely to face sustained pressure to function as moral and political counterweights, thereby preserving the prospects of reform and accountability in political life.
In addition, the interim government has introduced several long-awaited reforms that could help restore public confidence and reduce uncertainty by strengthening institutional effectiveness, particularly within the legislature, the administration, the judiciary and the electoral system. However, the success of these reforms will once again depend on genuine commitment to democratic norms and principles. Thus, despite persistent uncertainty, a number of developments encouraged by the July 2024 mass uprising suggest that hopes for unity, stability and democratic renewal may yet prevail over fragmentation and doubt in Bangladesh’s evolving political landscape in the years to come.
Dr Shafiqul Islam is a political analyst and full-time faculty member at the department of political science and sociology, North South University.