The World Bank has forecast that Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth may fall to 4.6% in the current FY26.
However, this growth is likely to increase to 6.1% in the next FY27, the organization said.
This forecast for the Bangladesh economy has been given in the World Bank’s newly published January edition of the Global Economic Prospects. The report was released in Washington on Tuesday (January 13).
The report said that the growth forecast for the next fiscal year has been slightly increased due to the gradual decline in inflationary pressures, increasing consumer spending and the possibility of reducing political uncertainty.
The World Bank believes that political stability will return when the national elections are held in early 2026 and the new government will take initiatives to implement structural reforms. This may strengthen the industrial sector, as well as increase both investment and government spending.
However, the World Bank has also highlighted multiple pressures on the economy in the current fiscal year.
The organization says that inflation in Bangladesh is still higher than the target. Due to the adoption of a tight monetary policy by Bangladesh Bank to control inflation, credit flow has decreased, which is hindering the expansion of trade and investment.
In addition, the World Bank has warned that new risks may arise for Bangladesh in international trade due to the imposition of counter-tariffs by the United States.
The organization has predicted that Bhutan will be at the top in terms of growth among South Asian countries. The country may grow by 7.3% in the current fiscal year.
India’s growth may be 6.5%. In addition, Sri Lanka has been predicted to grow by 3.5%, Maldives by 3.9%, and Nepal by 2.1%.
The World Bank has not given any specific growth forecast for Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, according to the provisional estimates of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the country’s GDP growth was 4.5% in the first quarter of FY26 (July-September).
This growth was only 2.58% in the same period of the previous fiscal year.
The World Bank report also highlighted the picture of the global economy.
It said that despite trade tensions and policy uncertainties, the global economy is still relatively stable.
Global growth may decline to 2.6% in 2026, which will increase to 2.7% in 2027.
However, the organization has warned that the current decade is going to be the weakest growth decade since the 1960s.
Indermit Gill, chief economist of the World Bank Group, said that the global economy is moving slowly with the burden of high public and private debt. In this situation, emerging and developing countries need to emphasize investment-friendly reforms, trade liberalization, and human resource development to increase growth and employment.