In the wake of the July movement that dismantled the longstanding rule of the Awami League, Bangladesh’s political landscape has reached a decisive juncture.
Student leaders, who spearheaded the 36-day mass uprising, are now advocating for an inclusive political framework.
Citing grievances over conventional politics that have polarised ethnic groups for 53 years, they now seek to unite people of diverse opinions and beliefs to forge a new political narrative.
This is also why the Anti-discrimination Student Movement wanted to take the initiative to announce the “July Declaration” and declare the 1972 Constitution and Awami League politics as “irrelevant”.
As such, the leaders of the Anti-discrimination Student Movement and the National Citizens’ Committee had also announced that they would unveil the “July Declaration” at the Shaheed Minar on Dec 31, 2024.
However, they later changed their programme after the interim government announced their interest in drafting a “declaration” for the July mass uprising rooted in national consensus.
Meanwhile, the Anti-discrimination Student Movement’s stance on the 1971 Constitution, which was achieved through the Liberation War, has sparked a sense of discomfort for the BNP.
BNP Standing Committee Member Mirza Abbas has said: “It hurts to hear about burying the constitution drafted in 1972. If there is anything bad in this constitution, it must be repealed.”
The youth now want to lead the way to break the old framework of the state and build a non-discriminatory, democratic and inclusive society in its continuation of the movement to reform government job quotas, following the fall of the Awami League government.
As such, the Anti-discrimination Student Movement is on its way to form a new party to lead in building a society of “responsibility and compassion”.
In addition to permanently eliminating the Awami League’s “fascist” system, the National Citizens’ Committee, which was formed after the interim government came into power, wants to create “skilled” leaders, as opposed to “loyal” workers, so that no authoritarian system can clamp down on the people.
After the Awami League’s decade-long and controversial rule collapsed in the wake of a mass movement, party president and former prime minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India.
Meanwhile, leaders and activists from all walks of life, including the Awami League’s General Secretary Obaidul Quader, is also on the run.
The interim government has also banned the Chhatra League, the party’s youth wing, on charges of “terrorism”. Cases of murder, “genocide”, corruption and money laundering have been filed against the former prime minister, ministers-MPs and top leaders during the movement.
In the meantime, discussions are ongoing on whether the Awami League will be able to return to the political field before and after the trial. Uncertainty looms surrounding its participation in the upcoming elections as well.
The interim government wants reforms before handing over power to the elected leaders through national elections.
However, the government’s demand is opposed by the country’s largest political party, the BNP. As such, the government and political parties have not been able to reach a consensus on who will carry out the reforms.
Meanwhile, reform proposals were submitted by the majority of the political parties including the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami.
Although the interim government has been in power for nearly four months, it has not yet announced an election roadmap. However, political parties still believe that 2025 will pave the path for their way to victory.
The analysis of the dynamics of politics and the context of discussions among people suggest that the new year could be challenging for political parties in many ways.
According to academician Abul Kashem Fazlul Haq, reforms are necessary as the political parties have not made the reforms they are speaking of in the 53 years of independence.
He said, “It is being said that elections will be held in early 2026. As a result, I do not think that the dream of a new Bangladesh that we are walking on through the mass uprising will be possible just by holding elections. We also have to do the work of creating a policy position or understanding.”
NEW POLITICAL PARTY ON THE HORIZON?
Multiple reports have surfaced in the media about the formation of a new party, potentially named “Janashakti,” under the leadership of the Anti-discrimination Student Movement with support from the National Citizens Committee.
However, the committee has refuted these claims, stating that no such decisions have been made.
Sarjis Alam, chief organiser of the National Citizens Committee, recently said multiple political parties will emerge in Bangladesh within the next two months.
Sarjis’s statement at a recent event in Panchagarh has given new impetus to the possibility of a new party entering the country’s political arena.
Nasiruddin Patwary, convener of the National Citizens’ Committee, said: “This party will be in a completely new form. There will be no place for the constitutional fascist structure here. They will not walk on the path of old problematic patterns, such as tender rigging, extortion, activities contrary to public aspirations or implementing any foreign agenda.”
“The rule during the last 53 years had taken the form of a fascist system. Bangladesh had been very eager to get out of this. That is why they came to the field. These people will participate in the democratic process that will take place in the future. We will all work together. The faster we are able to connect our dots, the faster we will move forward,” said Nasiruddin.
However the question that remains is – what could this new political party look like?
Student leaders say they will present something different from the current political trends.
Sarjis said, “We hope that the new political party that will come will not be limited to words. It will prove its words through actions. This party will have to understand the expectations of the people. In the past, parties did not understand the expectations of the people in order to keep power in their pockets. I hope this party will not be like that.”
Muhammad Mushtaq Hossain, former general secretary of the Dhaka University Central Students’ Union, or DUCSU, for the 1989-90 term, told bdnews24.com: “It remains to be seen if they can bring a new politics that can transcend the old political identity. We have not seen anything like that so far.”
“Now it remains to be seen what political programme and philosophy they are bringing forward. Because people from opposite poles of the previous identity are now together. They can move together on common grounds, as it has happened in the past too. But if a political party can bring a place of unity, that would be interesting. It is a matter of time. We will have to wait and see.”
Speaking about the formation of a new youth party, Khorshed Alam, an associate professor of Dhaka University’s Mass Communication and Journalism Department, told bdnews24.com: “The post-July government must be inclusive and democratic. There is no room for ‘ifs’ or ‘buts’ in this regard.”
“The reason for this is that the spirit of the July uprising is inclusive and democratic… We have to understand this. I think that a new political party can come from the hands of the students who have resisted fascism in the past 15 years.”
“At the same time, this political party should not become a King’s Party because this government will not last long on their heads.”
Badar Uddin, a student of the Department of Government and Politics at Jahangirnagar University, said: “The Moinuddin-Fakhruddin government formed the ‘King’s Party’ to depoliticise 1/11, to implement the two-minus theory. But the people rejected that two-minus theory, and the King’s Party stopped receiving support.”
“I am still hearing the same story… The work of forming this party is ongoing with the intelligence agencies.”
UNCERTAINTY LOOMS AHEAD FOR THE AWAMI LEAGUE
The once-dominant Awami League faces an unprecedented crisis following the collapse of the Hasina-led government on Aug 5, 2024. Post the July uprising, top leaders of the party are either in hiding, detained, or have fled the country.
The party’s headquarters, including its offices in Dhaka’s Dhanmondi neighbourhood and Bangabandhu Avenue, now sit abandoned—symbols of a political machine brought to its knees. Across the nation, regional offices have been vandalised or seized by opponents, leaving grassroots members in disarray.
Among the most haunting images of this upheaval is the desolation of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s historic residence at Dhanmondi 32, a site long revered as a symbol of the country’s liberation struggle.
The political earthquake of 2024 bears some resemblance to the fall of the military dictator Hussain Muhammad Ershad in 1990. However, there is one striking difference – Ershad handed over power to an interim government before being arrested, while Hasina, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, has fled the country.
The ousted Jatiya Party, the party Ershad had formed to come to power after Ziaur Rahman was killed in a military coup, participated in the elections held under the interim government after the 1990s.
But the Anti-discrimination Student Movement opposed allowing the Awami League to participate in the next national elections. They said that allowing the party to participate in the elections before the trial would be a betrayal to the blood of the students and people killed in the movement.
Despite their exile, Hasina and her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, have hinted at a political comeback in media statements.
On Aug 15, 2024, the party’s lower-ranking leaders and ordinary workers who went to pay homage to Bangabandhu in Dhanmondi faced widespread resistance and attacks.
The party’s attempt to reassert itself in public, most recently on the Nur Hossain Day in November 2024, was met with fierce resistance from political groups allied with the uprising.
The challenges facing the Awami League today are unlike those it encountered in the aftermath of the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975. At that time, the party, despite staggering losses, managed to regroup and regain its footing. Now, it confronts not only political opposition but also a public backlash against years of alleged corruption and authoritarianism.
Shafi Mia, a hardware store worker at Bangshal Mor in Old Dhaka, told bdnews24.com: “Here (Bangshal), there are people of the Awami League who have become rich by looting, and they are now afraid to identify themselves as Awami League members.”
Shafi, 60, added: “But we, the workers and supporters who did not get the benefits, believe that Awami League will be purified and turn around again.”
Awami League grassroots leaders allege that in order to intimidate the party’s leaders and workers, one murder case after another is being filed against their leader Hasina. In addition, initiatives are being taken to try her on charges of crimes against humanity.
HM Ishaq, an Awami League supporter believes that this is actually increasing people’s “sympathy” for the Awami League.
When asked about returning to the political arena, a joint general secretary of the party, who wished to remain anonymous, told bdnews24.com in a text message from his hiding: “It is not possible to do anything in this country by leaving a big party like the Awami League out. The party will turn around like it has done in the past.”
BNP-JAMAAT
The BNP, which rose to prominence following the assassination of Bangladesh’s founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975, has historically claimed credit for fostering multi-party democracy in the country.
Under the leadership of its late founder, Ziaur Rahman, the party paved the way for Jamaat-e-Islami to re-enter the political sphere after years of proscription.
Over the decades, the two parties found opportunities to come closer, particularly during the tumultuous 1990s. Jamaat-e-Islami also became a key coalition partner during the BNP’s previous stint in government and an ally in its long-standing opposition to the ruling Awami League.
Yet, the dissolution of the BNP-led 20-party alliance in December 2022 marked a turning point. The BNP leaders framed the split as an effort to shed the burdens of association with Jamaat-e-Islami, which they believed had fueled negative public perception and political propaganda.
What began as a strategic separation has since morphed into a widening chasm, with the two parties now diverging sharply on the core issues of political reform and election timelines.
“Reforms first, elections later”, “no rush for elections” – despite the Jamaat-e-Islami leaders saying this for three months, at the end of November 2024, the party’s Naib-e-Amir Mujibur Rahman demanded that the elections be held “after completing the reforms as soon as possible”.
At a meeting in Cumilla’s Chauddagram on Dec 21, 2024, Jamaat-e-Islami Naib-e-Amir Syed Abdullah Mohammad Taher said: “The next national elections must be held by 2025. All reforms must be completed by then. I hope that the chief advisor will complete the reforms and hold the national elections by 2025.”
On the other hand, the BNP wants early elections in the wake of various incidents. “Otherwise, the problems will increase,” said the party’s Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir.
In a dialogue organised by the Forum for Bangladesh Studies on Dec 27, 2024 he said: “The longer the time passes for reforms, the more the problems will increase.”
The leaders of the two parties have also been seen arguing over allegations of extortion and usurpation.
On Dec 29, 2024, while referring to the Jamaat-e-Islami, BNP Senior Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, said: “The people have seen how the followers of a political party took over the Islami Bank after the student-citizen movement.”
Later, Jamaat-e-Islami Assistant Secretary General Rafiqul Islam Khan protested Rizvi’s statement.
He said, “Jamaat’s politics are against Indian hegemony and fascism. The nation has accepted this role. This is probably why Rizvi is angry.”
ELECTIONS FIRST OR REFORMS?
An organisation called the Forum for Bangladesh Studies hosted a dialogue with at least 20 political parties, alliances, and a few advisors to find a path for the trial of the killings during the mass movement, democratic reforms, and the country’s upcoming elections. The dialogue titled “Unity, Reforms and Elections” also discussed elections and reforms.
The national dialogue came to the conclusion that the people will not get the benefits of democracy if elections are held without reforming various institutions of the state that have been transformed into a “fascist structure”.
Some of the negotiators alleged that within four months of the July uprising, various political parties have “put state reforms and elections face to face”.
In his address to the nation on Victory Day, Chief Advisor Professor Muhammad Yunus outlined a possible timeframe for the national election, saying that the 13th parliamentary election could be held by the end of 2025 or the first half of 2026, based on the consensus of the political parties.
The next day, the chief advisor’s press secretary, Shafiqul Alam, said that the elections will be held by June30, 2026. However, if there are fewer reforms, it could be held by December 2025.
Meanwhile, the BNP has expressed disappointment in its official response to their statement. The party says that it is advisable to hold elections after making the necessary reforms. Otherwise, the problems will continue to increase.
In the wake of various events in the four months of the interim government, political parties involved in the movement to oust the “fascist” Sheikh Hasina government believe that the “friends” of the fallen Awami League are conspiring in various ways to fail the interim government. To prevent this, early elections are essential.
Raisa Tabbasum, a student of the Department of Political Science at Dhaka University, said: “To hold a credible election, the current electoral system must be reformed. The previous government has broken and destroyed this system while they were in power.”
“Therefore, what is important now is to start electoral reforms on a priority basis. Otherwise, I have serious doubts about whether an election will be held within the new year. The interim government must set priorities.”
As many as 62 major and minor political parties and alliances, including the BNP, have already submitted various proposals for reform to the reform commissions formed by the interim government.
The BNP believes that reform is an ongoing process as it requires public support. Therefore, reforms should be implemented based on decisions made in the elected parliament.
Poet and thinker Farhad Mazhar wants to prioritise reconciliation between political parties over elections in 2025.
He said, “I am not in favor of elections now. I think we can form a reconstruction or reconciliation council by reaching an agreement with political parties.”
“The important thing now is to quickly heal the wound that has been created between us,” said Mazhar.
“PAVING THE WAY FOR THE CARETAKER SYSTEM”
Following the uprising, all political parties in the country are looking forward to a “neutral and acceptable” election.
However, Arman Ali of Nilphamari’s Tunirhat, a newly registered voter, has explained that the scenario has changed after the July-August uprising.
“With the addition and subtraction of politics, the voting equation will not be the same this time. We will have to stand in line to vote, the days of miracles are over. For us, the new voters, the cost of voting is high.”
On Dec 17, 2024, a High Court bench declared some parts of the 15th Amendment to the Constitution, which abolished the caretaker government system during the election period a decade ago, null and void.
As a result of this ruling, the provision made by the Awami League for holding parliamentary elections under a party government was annulled, paving the way for the return of the caretaker government system during the election period.
Attorney General Mohammad Asaduzzaman clarified that the High Court ruling has paved the way for the return of the caretaker government system, and the current interim government system “will not be constitutionally incompatible with it”.
The last national election in 2008 was held under a caretaker government, through which the Awami League-led grand alliance came to power. The 15th amendment to the constitution was brought in 2011.
After that, the Awami League remained in power for more than 15 consecutive years, winning absolute victories in 2014, 2018 and 2024. The last 12th parliamentary elections were held under a party government on Jan 7, 2024.
After the fall of military ruler Ershad in 1990, the then Chief Justice Shahabuddin Ahmed took over as the interim president of the country based on the consensus of all parties, including the two main opposition parties, the BNP and the Awami League. The country has had experience of holding elections under its “interim government” leadership in its history.