Ever since the people of the world learned the need for homogeneity—be it cultural, linguistic, religious, tribal, or for the necessity to band together—and felt the need to acknowledge the existence of a world beyond their own, diplomacy has been playing a role either as a friend or foe. I would argue that regardless of the size or economic strength of a country, the practice of democracy remains the pillar of cohesion.
BANGLADESH FOREIGN POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE US-CHINA-INDIA COMPLEX
Throughout history, the definition of diplomacy has changed in line with the existing situation. Plato argued that democracy was inferior to various forms of monarchy, aristocracy, and even oligarchy on the grounds that democracy tends to undermine the expertise necessary to properly govern societies. In a democracy, he argues, those who are experts at winning elections and nothing else will eventually dominate democratic politics. Democracy tends to emphasize this expertise at the expense of the expertise that is necessary to properly govern societies. The reason for this is that most people do not have the kinds of talents that enable proper governance (STANFORD ENCYCLOPEDIA OF PHILOSOPHY). Modern practice of diplomacy puts emphasis on democracy as the binding force of diplomacy. John Stuart Mill argued that a democratic method of making legislation is better than non-democratic methods in three ways: strategically, epistemically, and via the improvement of the characters of democratic citizens. Strategically, democracy has an advantage because it forces decision-makers to take into account the interests, rights, and opinions of most people in society. Since democracy gives some political power to each, more people are taken into account than under aristocracy or monarchy.
AMARTYA SEN’S ARGUMENT AGAINST FAMINE IN A DEMOCRACY
The most forceful contemporary statement of this instrumental argument is provided by Amartya Sen, who argued, for example, that “no substantial famine has ever occurred in any independent country with a democratic form of government and a relatively free press.” The basis of this argument is that politicians in a multiparty democracy with free elections and a free press have incentives to respond to the expressions of needs of the poor.
CONTRARY ARGUMENT BY XI JINPING FOR TAKING A WRONG SIDE AGAINST USA AND EUROPEAN UNION
A contrary argument is given by China’s Xi Jinping, who argues that the totalitarian system is better able to deliver goods to the people than a democratic system. The foreign debt of China, by June 2015, stood at around US$ 1.68 trillion. China’s debt has grown dramatically over the past decade and is one of the biggest economic challenges confronting the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which turns 100 this week. Beijing identified the ballooning debt pile as a potential threat to economic stability, and in recent years tried to reduce the country’s reliance on debt for growth. But that deleveraging effort came to a pause for much of last year due to Covid-19 (June 2021).
REASONS FOR CHINESE FORAY INTO BANGLADESH POLITICS
This foray into the Chinese economy is for two reasons: firstly, because Bangladesh’s position in South Asia has only a 145-kilometer boundary with Myanmar (bedeviled by the Rohingya crisis) and the Bay of Bengal. On all sides, Bangladesh is dependent on India. Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia. Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh has grown steadily over the last decade. India’s exports to Bangladesh in FY 2018-19 stood at $9.21 billion, and imports during the same period were at $1.04 billion. The Indian economy expanded 4.1% year-on-year in the first three months of 2022, slightly higher than market forecasts of 4%, but due to rising Omicron infections, elevated energy prices, and ongoing supply chain constraints. On the consumption side, household spending slowed sharply, and both export and import growth also eased. In contrast, government spending increased more, and gross fixed capital formation accelerated. Considering the fiscal year ended in March 2022, the economy advanced 8.7%. The Reserve Bank of India estimates the GDP growth rate for FY 2023 at 7.2%. Exports to Bangladesh from China decreased. Bangladesh is the world’s second-biggest apparel exporter after China. Garments, including knitwear and hosiery, account for 80% of export revenue; others include jute goods, home textiles, footwear, and frozen shrimp and fish. The bilateral trade between Bangladesh and China has increased significantly in recent years. Bangladesh has been suffering from historic trade imbalances with China since its economic relationship began after 1974. This trade deficit makes Bangladesh dependent on China and raises serious concerns about the economic and financial impact. Increasing exports to China could lead to a decrease in trade deficits. Bangladesh needs ensured access to the Chinese market. This step of sincere and active cooperation between the two countries is considered significant enough to reduce the trade deficit.
CAN CHINA INTEND TO FALL INTO DEBT-TRAP POLICY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’ INFRASTRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT
An Indian foreign policy expert, Brahma Chellaney (China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy Jan 23, 2017), and no less than Donald Trump’s Vice President, Mike Pence, warned the emerging economies of China’s debt-trap policy. Through its $1 trillion “One Belt, One Road” initiative, China is supporting infrastructure projects in strategically located developing countries, often by extending huge loans to their governments. As a result, some of these countries are becoming saddled with debt, leaving them even more firmly under China’s thumb. Some contrary opinions have been sounded in favor of Chinese loans due to unemployment in those countries and the rising cost of essentials. The people in those countries are pressing their governments to accept Chinese loans that would provide employment and fund infrastructure for which the host country lacks money. Bangladesh is no exception. Sheikh Hasina’s official visit to China (July 2019) seemingly succeeded in bolstering ties between the countries. During the trip, both sides inked a host of agreements, including two deals to provide loans to the Bangladeshi power sector. The countries also expressed interest in accelerating work related to the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM EC) project, an initiative aimed at expanding the economic ties of the four countries that together are home to nearly 3 billion people. Bangladesh and China turned their relationship into a strategic partnership in 2016, and in recent years, Chinese investment in the South Asian country has risen rapidly.
DHAKA-CHINA BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE
As part of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing and Dhaka signed deals worth $21.5 billion covering a raft of power and infrastructure projects. To date, pledged BRI-related investment in Bangladesh stands at around $38 billion. China has pumped more money into Bangladesh than any other country over the past couple of years. China alone accounts for almost a third of this investment, worth over $1 billion. The Padma Bridge, a major road-rail project across the Padma River, is being built by the China Major Bridge Engineering Company. And China’s Exim Bank is providing $3 billion for the construction of the rail link accompanying the bridge. It prompts countries like Japan and India to also come forward and invest. Bangladesh has announced an ambitious plan to set up 100 special economic zones by 2030. Many Chinese companies appear interested in investing in these zones.
INDIAN DISCOMFITURE NOTWITHSTANDING XI-JINPING’S INITIATIVE REMAINS ATTRACTIVE TO POOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
The question, apart from Indian discomfiture, is whether Bangladesh has to take into consideration whether democracy as a way of life should be abandoned because of Xi Jinping’s promise of quick delivery, as he and the Chinese Communist Party are able to deliver the goods needed by the people. The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy states that unless equality is shared among citizens in law and policy, there may be substantial and conscientious disagreement among them. The basic facts are that individuals are very diverse in terms of their interests. People’s interests are diverse because of their different natural talents, because they are raised in different sectors of society, and because they are raised in societies where there is a diversity of cultural backgrounds. Partly as a consequence of the fact that people are raised in different sectors of society and in distinct cultural milieus, they are likely to have deep cognitive biases when they attempt to understand other people’s interests and how they are compared to their own interests. The question that has to be answered is whether the West, now allied with the European Union and other freedom-loving countries, should be jettisoned in favor of an authoritarian system which promises quick results but no dissension in policy-making.
APART FROM IDEOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES, BANGLADESH RISKS ISOLATION FROM THE WESTERN POWERS
Apart from ideological differences, Bangladesh risks being isolated from the West, whose assistance is needed at every step of the way. It can be argued that close relations with China do not have to be at the cost of relations with the West. Throughout history, minorities have faced discrimination in various forms—based on language, clans, tribes, and most importantly, religion. Intra-religion conflicts have been known throughout history. Famous are the conflicts among Christians—the Protestants and the Catholics. Intra-Christians, the most famous one, is the revolt against the Pope by Martin Luther, giving rise to the Catholic and non-Catholic division. Other factors emerged to divide Christianity, like the annulments sought by King Henry the Eighth from the Pope, resulting in the separation of the English branch of Christianity. Linguistic differences also not only led to dissension among the people of the same region but also led to the creation of a new state.
BIRTH OF BANGLADESH
Bangladesh was created mainly because Urdu and Bengali were separate languages and had separate scripts. The languages were so different that one could not read or write the other. But then politico-economic reasons were there too. Bangladesh felt that this part of the country was being exploited for the benefit of the other. Again, linguistic differences are not uncommon in different countries of the world. Take India for example. The Indian people speak 22 languages, each of them significantly distinct from the other. Belgium, a country that divided itself between French-speaking and Dutch-speaking people, is another example. So, we cannot always divide nations by linguistic differences; the broader causes must prevail. The problem also is that one must understand what gives a nation its legitimacy. It is self-determination. It is argued that religious dominance over the state leads to division, as it happened at the time of the partition of British India. India was predominantly a Hindu-majority nation, while Muslims had no voice in the matter. That gave rise to the creation of Pakistan. The separation of these two states from the same foundation went further to the separation of East Pakistan from West Pakistan, creating Bangladesh.
THE IMPACT OF DEMOCRACY ON FOREIGN POLICY IN BANGLADESH’S CONTEXT
Bangladesh’s foreign policy has evolved over the decades to address both internal and external challenges. It must navigate complex relationships with regional powers like India and China while also considering its ties to Western countries and international organizations. Bangladesh has historically aligned itself with multilateral organizations like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization, seeking to bolster its global standing and economic prospects. However, the rise of China’s influence and its “Belt and Road Initiative” presents a challenge to the traditional models of governance and foreign policy. The growing Chinese economic footprint in Bangladesh, alongside the potential pitfalls of relying too heavily on China, presents a dilemma for Bangladesh’s policymakers.
THE ROLE OF IDEOLOGY IN FOREIGN POLICY
Ideology plays an essential role in shaping Bangladesh’s foreign policy. The commitment to democracy is central to the country’s approach, both domestically and internationally. However, the influence of China’s authoritarian model creates an ideological tension for Bangladesh, which is striving to balance its own democratic identity with the pressures of aligning with China for economic development. This ideological challenge highlights the broader debate about whether countries in the developing world can afford to sacrifice democratic principles for the sake of economic progress, as promised by China’s authoritarian model. While China’s promises of swift infrastructure development and economic growth have been attractive to many nations, the costs—both financially and politically—are becoming increasingly evident.
THE RISK OF ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY AND THE CHINA-INDIA-RUSSIA TRIANGLE
Bangladesh’s dependence on foreign aid and investment places the country in a precarious position within the China-India-Russia triangle. The geopolitical dynamics of this region are complex, and Bangladesh’s position could become a site of contention between two great powers—India and China. While Bangladesh has long enjoyed a strategic partnership with India, recent developments, including the growing Chinese investment, could complicate this relationship. India’s concern about China’s influence in Bangladesh is understandable, as China’s presence in Bangladesh could potentially shift the balance of power in the region.
As part of the China-India rivalry, Bangladesh finds itself caught in a complex web of strategic interests. India’s traditional influence over Bangladesh, particularly in terms of economic relations, security concerns, and shared cultural and historical ties, is at risk of being overshadowed by China’s economic power. India’s response to China’s growing presence in Bangladesh could affect its broader geopolitical strategy, leading to increased competition for influence in the region. India may take steps to counter China’s growing influence through its own investments, diplomatic efforts, and security initiatives. In this environment, Bangladesh must carefully navigate its foreign relations and avoid falling into the middle of a geopolitical rivalry that could jeopardize its sovereignty.
THE WESTERN RESPONSE AND BANGLADESH’S DEMOCRATIC IDENTITY
Despite the challenges posed by China’s rise, Bangladesh must not overlook its longstanding ties with the West. The support it receives from Western nations, particularly in terms of trade, aid, and security cooperation, remains crucial for its continued development. Bangladesh has benefitted from Western investments and partnerships in areas like education, human rights, and infrastructure development. The European Union, in particular, has played a significant role in Bangladesh’s trade and export sectors, especially the garment industry, which is a cornerstone of the country’s economy.
Moreover, the values of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law continue to resonate with many of Bangladesh’s citizens, despite the economic allure of authoritarian systems. The challenge for Bangladesh’s leaders is to ensure that the country’s democratic identity is not compromised while also taking advantage of the economic opportunities provided by China. The dilemma lies in balancing these competing interests without jeopardizing the country’s sovereignty and democratic principles.
THE FUTURE OF BANGLADESH’S FOREIGN POLICY: A BALANCING ACT
Looking ahead, Bangladesh’s foreign policy will likely continue to evolve in response to both internal and external pressures. The country’s leadership must weigh the risks and rewards of aligning with China while ensuring that the country’s democratic foundations remain intact. Bangladesh’s unique position in South Asia gives it the opportunity to play a key role in regional and global geopolitics. However, this also means that the country must navigate the complex and often conflicting interests of its neighbors, as well as the broader international community.
One of the most pressing challenges for Bangladesh is managing its relationships with its neighbors—particularly India, China, and Myanmar—while maintaining its democratic ideals. The country must avoid falling into the trap of becoming overly dependent on any single power, whether China or India. Instead, Bangladesh should focus on building strong, diverse relationships with multiple partners, both in the region and globally. By doing so, it can ensure its economic development, security, and sovereignty while preserving its democratic identity.
CONCLUSION: THE PATH FORWARD
In conclusion, Bangladesh’s foreign policy is at a crossroads, as it must navigate the complexities of an increasingly multipolar world. The country’s democratic ideals, while crucial to its identity, are under pressure from both external forces and internal challenges. The rise of China as a global economic power offers opportunities for Bangladesh, but it also brings risks, particularly in terms of economic dependency and geopolitical tensions.
Bangladesh must remain vigilant in preserving its democratic values while pursuing economic growth and regional stability. By carefully managing its relationships with India, China, and the West, Bangladesh can chart a course that ensures its long-term prosperity and sovereignty. The key to success lies in balancing the demands of democracy with the realities of geopolitics, ensuring that the country remains a vibrant and independent nation in an increasingly complex global landscape.