Bangladesh is currently navigating a critical period in terms of food security and economic stability, as a combination of global and domestic factors continues to impact its agricultural sector and broader economy.
Despite notable progress in poverty reduction and food production, the country faces mounting challenges from rising food prices, climate change, and economic stagnation. According to the Food Security Update (February 2025), food inflation in Bangladesh has remained persistently high, reaching 10.7% in January 2025 (World Bank, 2025), with serious implications for household food affordability and nutrition.
The key drivers of this inflation include a global rise in cereal prices—particularly maize, which has reached a 15-month high—affecting both livestock feed and the food processing industry. While rice prices have declined by 10%, the domestic impact has been uneven. Additional contributors to rising food costs include supply chain disruptions caused by increasing transport expenses, trade restrictions, and currency depreciation.
Climate-related factors are further exacerbating the situation. Erratic monsoon patterns, heatwaves, and seasonal flooding continue to undermine domestic food production, rendering food more expensive and less accessible, especially for vulnerable populations.
Bangladesh’s agricultural sector is under considerable stress due to climate change. Extreme heat, irregular rainfall, flooding, and salinity intrusion are diminishing crop yields. The Boro rice variety, the nation’s principal irrigated rice crop, has been particularly affected by rising nighttime temperatures, which are linked to reduced yields and pose a threat to national food security (FAO, 2025). In northwestern regions, drought and water scarcity have adversely impacted wheat and maize production, while coastal districts such as Khulna and Barisal face increasing soil salinity, hindering the cultivation of rice, pulses, and vegetables. Although the government has promoted climate-resilient rice varieties and improved irrigation techniques, broader investment and widespread adoption are needed to counter the impacts of climate change effectively.
Government and policy responses
In response to these challenges, the Bangladeshi government has introduced a range of measures aimed at safeguarding food security and protecting vulnerable populations from high food prices. Expanding social protection programmes has been a key focus. The Open Market Sales (OMS) programme continues to offer rice and wheat at subsidised rates, enabling lower-income households to afford staple foods (Bangladesh Ministry of Food, 2025). Through the Food-Friendly Programme, rice is distributed at a fixed rate of BDT 10 per kilogram to millions of vulnerable households. School feeding initiatives have also been expanded to support child nutrition. However, rising operational costs and budgetary constraints are undermining the sustainability of these programmes in the long term.
Trade policy remains an essential lever for food price stabilisation. The government has maintained an export ban on rice to preserve domestic supply and prevent price surges (Bangladesh Trade Policy, 2025). However, Bangladesh remains heavily dependent on wheat and edible oil imports from countries such as India, Ukraine, and Russia. In response to global supply challenges, the government has reduced import duties on these commodities to ease domestic price pressures. Bangladesh is also working to strengthen regional trade agreements with India and ASEAN member states to secure stable food imports. Despite these initiatives, global trade disruptions and economic instability continue to jeopardise food affordability.
Efforts to modernise agriculture are also underway. The Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) has introduced stress-tolerant rice varieties capable of withstanding heat, drought, and salinity (BRRI, 2025). Precision agriculture technologies—such as AI-driven soil monitoring, drone-assisted farming, and digital advisory services—are being promoted to improve efficiency and productivity. Public-private partnerships in agribusiness are additionally being encouraged to enhance food processing capacity and reduce post-harvest losses, thereby helping to stabilise the national food supply.
Economic growth and future projections
Bangladesh’s economic growth has slowed amid global stagnation and domestic inflationary pressures. According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects 2025 report, GDP growth is projected to stabilise at approximately 5.2% in 2025—considerably lower than the pre-pandemic average of over 7% (World Bank, 2025). Key constraints include persistent inflation and currency depreciation, both of which have eroded consumer purchasing power and increased production costs for businesses.
Additionally, a decline in remittances from Gulf countries has impacted foreign exchange reserves, further destabilising the economy. The ready-made garment (RMG) sector—one of the primary drivers of the Bangladeshi economy—has experienced reduced demand from key export markets such as the United States and Europe, further dampening economic prospects.
Opportunities for food security and economic resilience
Despite the current challenges, Bangladesh has several opportunities to bolster its food security and economic resilience. Scaling up climate-smart agricultural practices can help mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on food production. Promoting and adopting sustainable techniques such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) irrigation and conservation agriculture can enhance yields while minimising environmental damage (FAO, 2025). Diversifying crop production—moving beyond rice to include pulses, maize, and oilseeds—can help stabilise food supply and reduce reliance on imports.
Improving supply chain infrastructure is another crucial step. Enhancing storage facilities, transport networks, and cold chain logistics will help reduce post-harvest losses and ensure more efficient food distribution. Expanding digital financial services for farmers and small agribusinesses can facilitate access to credit, enabling greater investment in modern technologies and techniques. Furthermore, reinforcing regional trade partnerships can offer greater protection against global market shocks and support stable food flows across borders.
Bangladesh’s food security and economic stability are under considerable strain due to rising food prices, climate change, and global economic uncertainties. Nevertheless, with effective government policy, investment in climate-resilient agriculture, and stronger trade relations, the country can lay the foundation for a more secure and stable future. Long-term investments in sustainable agriculture, robust social safety nets, and innovative food production methods are essential to ensuring that all citizens have consistent access to affordable, nutritious food. Through coordinated efforts involving the government, private sector, and international partners, Bangladesh can overcome current challenges and advance towards greater food security and economic resilience in the coming years.
Dr Md Kamruzzaman Milon, Senior Scientist and Agri-climate Expert, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh; Email: [email protected]; Cell: 01776422808
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