Bangladesh could see its export earnings from the United States surpass $2 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year, thanks to shifting global trade dynamics triggered by escalating tariff disputes between the US, China, and India, according to Dr Zahid Hossain, former Chief Economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office.
Dr Hossain made the projection during a discussion titled ‘Macroeconomic Challenges and Ways Out’, hosted by the Economic Reporters Forum (ERF) at its auditorium in Paltan, Dhaka, on Saturday.
The event marked the annual Moazzem Hossain Memorial Lecture, honouring the legacy of the late journalist and development thinker, who was founding president of the forum.
Tariff shifts create new export opportunities
The US has recently intensified its reciprocal tariff policy, imposing steep duties on imports from key Asian economies. Notably, India now faces combined tariffs of up to 50% on certain goods exported to the US, among the highest rates globally, second only to Brazil. This surge stems from an additional 25% duty linked to India’s increased imports of Russian crude oil, layered on top of existing trade measures.
As a result, Indian exports worth an estimated $48.2 billion are expected to be negatively impacted, according to Indian government assessments. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has publicly said that India will not compromise on protecting its farmers or national economic interests, signalling a firm stance in the ongoing trade standoff.
With Indian and Chinese exporters facing higher barriers in the US market, analysts say Bangladesh is well-positioned to fill the supply gap, particularly in sectors such as textiles, leather goods, footwear, and light manufactured products.
Looking ahead
With global supply chains undergoing rapid recalibration, Bangladesh’s ability to leverage its neutral trade profile and low-cost manufacturing base could redefine its role in international markets.
If current trends hold, the $2 billion milestone in US export revenue, once considered ambitious, now appears within reach, marking a potential turning point in Bangladesh’s economic trajectory.