Bangladesh GDP Growth Slowest in Over 3 Years | Economy slows to 1.81% in volatile first quarter | Bangladesh Economy Growth FY25

The Bangladesh economy saw its lowest quarterly growth in three-and-a-half years in the first quarter of the fiscal year on the back of political upheaval and severe flood in August.

Between July and September, the GDP growth was 1.81 percent, the lowest since the second quarter of fiscal 2020-21, when the world was in the throes of the global coronavirus pandemic, according to data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. A year earlier, the GDP grew 6.04 percent.

The latest GDP growth figure shows the true state of the economy and the BBS did not try to show a rosy picture, as was the case previously, according to economists.

“Earlier, it was seen that despite political unrest like hartals and blockades and transport shutdowns, economic growth was shown higher,” said Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling, a think-tank.

During the quarter, industrial output expanded by only 2.13 percent, a sharp decline from the robust 8.22 percent growth recorded a year earlier.

Besides, the services sector grew by 1.54 percent compared with the 5.07 percent recorded for the first quarter of last fiscal year.

At least four to five factors were behind the low growth, said Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue.

“The student protests and their impact, the floods, entrepreneurs leaving and shutting down factories after August, labour unrest — all of these combinedly resulted in low economic output,” he added.

Political disruption was a major reason behind the tepid GDP growth as it affected all sectors, said Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office.

Because of industrial unrest in Gazipur, Ashulia and other areas, many garment factories couldn’t operate for days, which affected the manufacturing sector.

“After the political changeover, many businesspersons left the country, while others got caught up in trouble. Their factories and businesses couldn’t function properly.”

This affected industrial production and business activities.

“Political instability, natural disasters, industrial unrest combined with high inflation also led to a problem of reduced demand.”

High inflation has decreased people’s purchasing power noticeably.

“As a result, even if things were normal, demand and business activities would still have been negatively impacted.”

This had a particularly negative effect on the services sector, said Hussain, who was part of the 12-member committee that prepared a white paper on the Bangladesh economy.

“So, all these factors combined to define the first quarter. Yet, despite everything, the fact that there’s still around 1.8 percent growth in this quarter, which, I think, is very good news,” he added.

Due to flood in August, agricultural production was negatively affected, said Raihan, also a professor at the University of Dhaka’s economics department.

In the first quarter, agricultural output rose just 0.16 percent compared to 0.35 percent a year earlier.