The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House for a second term has reignited discussions about the global implications of his policies, particularly on trade, defence, immigration, and geopolitics. For Bangladesh, a strategically located South Asian nation, these shifts demand careful analysis and a proactive approach to managing its bilateral relationship with the US. While Trump’s first presidency (2017-2021) introduced a “transactional” approach to diplomacy under the “America First” doctrine, his potential comeback could exacerbate existing challenges and create new opportunities for Dhaka.
Trade dependency and diversification
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star’s Google News channel. The US is Bangladesh’s single largest export market, with the ready-made garment (RMG) sector accounting for over 80 percent of exports to the US. In 2022, Bangladesh exported $10.41 billion worth of goods to the US, underscoring the importance of maintaining favourable trade relations. However, Trump’s protectionist policies and potential demands for stricter compliance with labour standards or supply chain transparency could complicate this dynamic.
During his first term, Trump withdrew from multilateral trade agreements and emphasised bilateral deals, often using trade relations as leverage for broader political goals. This approach could have serious repercussions for Bangladesh, which relies on preferential trade agreements and access to foreign markets for its economic growth. The Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) programme for Bangladesh, suspended in 2013, might face further delays under another Trump administration.
Bangladesh must diversify its export markets beyond traditional partners, particularly in Europe and North America. Additionally, improving compliance with international labour and environmental standards is imperative. Efforts to upgrade worker safety and rights—initiated after the Rana Plaza tragedy—need renewed vigour. Dhaka should also actively engage in economic diplomacy, presenting itself as a stable and reliable partner in an era of shifting global trade dynamics.
Geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific
Bangladesh’s geographic position along the Bay of Bengal makes it a focal point in the growing US-China rivalry. Trump’s Indo-Pacific Strategy was a cornerstone of his foreign policy during his first term, aimed at countering China’s growing influence through alliances and regional partnerships. Bangladesh, while maintaining close economic ties with China, also participates in regional security initiatives and dialogues with the US.
A more assertive Trump presidency could escalate the militarisation of the Indo-Pacific, compelling Bangladesh to make difficult choices. While the US would likely push for closer defence cooperation under the guise of countering Chinese influence, Bangladesh must balance this with its dependency on Chinese investment in infrastructure and technology. The country’s involvement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has already drawn scrutiny from Washington, making this balancing act even more delicate.
Bangladesh should prioritise its strategic autonomy, refraining from being drawn into the binary US-China competition. By advocating for a multipolar Indo-Pacific, Dhaka can position itself as a neutral, peace-promoting state. Moreover, targeted military and economic cooperation with the US, particularly in areas like maritime security and counterterrorism, can strengthen bilateral ties without alienating China.
The Rohingya crisis: Keeping the global focus alive
One of Bangladesh’s most pressing humanitarian challenges is the Rohingya crisis. Hosting over one million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, the country faces immense social, economic, and environmental pressures. Trump’s first term was marked by limited engagement in humanitarian crises, and a second term could see further withdrawal from multilateral efforts.
Bangladesh’s appeals for international support, particularly for Rohingya repatriation, have been met with mixed responses. While the US has provided significant financial assistance, it has not taken a leadership role in addressing the root causes of the crisis. Trump’s scepticism of international institutions like the UN could undermine collective efforts to hold Myanmar accountable for its actions, leaving Bangladesh with fewer avenues for recourse.
To ensure continued support, Bangladesh must adopt a multi-pronged strategy. This includes engaging US lawmakers, think tanks, and advocacy groups to keep the Rohingya crisis on Washington’s agenda. Simultaneously, Dhaka should explore partnerships with other countries and organisations to create a global coalition advocating for a durable solution. Highlighting the regional security implications of prolonged refugee displacement can also attract US attention, given its strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.
Public diplomacy and countering negative perceptions
During his first term, Trump’s rhetoric on Bangladesh was occasionally influenced by domestic political considerations and lobbying efforts. Statements that appeared dismissive of Bangladesh’s progress and contributions not only strained bilateral relations but also reinforced negative stereotypes. Additionally, the Bangladeshi diaspora in the US, which plays a vital role in cultural and economic exchanges, remains an underutilised asset in countering such narratives.
Bangladesh needs to invest in public diplomacy, showcasing its achievements in economic growth, poverty reduction, and climate resilience. Initiatives to engage the Bangladeshi diaspora—through cultural festivals, business forums, and academic collaborations—can create a positive narrative and build goodwill. Furthermore, the establishment of Bangladesh-focused programmes at US think tanks and universities can enhance the country’s visibility and influence in US policymaking circles.
Challenges for Bangladeshi migrants
Trump’s hardline stance on immigration, including restrictions on H-1B visas and enhanced scrutiny of migrants from Muslim-majority countries, has created challenges for Bangladeshi nationals in the US. A second term could see the continuation or expansion of these policies, impacting both skilled professionals and students seeking opportunities in the US.
Bangladesh must advocate for the fair treatment of its nationals, emphasising their contributions to the US economy and society. Strengthening bilateral agreements on labour mobility and skills development can also mitigate the impact of restrictive immigration policies. Additionally, fostering educational and cultural exchanges can build bridges between the two nations.
One of Bangladesh’s long-standing challenges is the limited capacity of its diplomatic apparatus to engage effectively with major global powers like the US. While its missions in Washington DC and New York have made strides in recent years, there remains a significant gap in expertise, resources, and strategic planning.
Dhaka should establish specialised units within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to monitor US policy developments and coordinate lobbying efforts. Enhancing the capabilities of its diplomatic missions—through training programmes, recruitment of subject matter experts, and increased funding—will be critical in navigating the complexities of Bangladesh-US relations. Collaboration with international think tanks and advocacy groups can also amplify Bangladesh’s voice in Washington.
Opportunities amid challenges
While Trump’s presidency presents significant challenges, it also offers opportunities for Bangladesh to strengthen its partnership with the US. The Bay of Bengal’s strategic importance and Bangladesh’s growing role in regional geopolitics make it a valuable ally in Washington’s Indo-Pacific Strategy.
Additionally, Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy provides an opening for Bangladesh to negotiate targeted agreements that align with its national priorities. Areas such as renewable energy, digital technology, and climate resilience offer potential avenues for collaboration.
Crafting a resilient strategy
The prospect of a second Trump presidency underscores the need for Bangladesh to adopt a proactive, multifaceted approach to managing its relationship with the US. By prioritising economic diversification, strategic autonomy, and diplomatic engagement, Dhaka can navigate the uncertainties of this new era while safeguarding its national interests. In a world increasingly defined by competition and unpredictability, resilience and foresight are key to a brighter future for Bangladesh-US relations.
Dr Rakib Al Hasan is a physician, author, activist and international award-winning youth leader of Bangladesh. He is the founder and executive director of the Centre for Partnership Initiative. He can be reached at [email protected].
Views expressed in this article are the author’s own.
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