A recent London meeting between the top leadership of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami has sparked off speculations in Dhaka’s political circles about a possible rapprochement between the two in the offing.
The relations between the two erstwhile electoral partners had soured in recent months, leading many to believe that the long alliance between the BNP and the Jamaat had ended. Now, however, the possibility of the two patching up their past differences has brightened.
The BNP chairperson and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and the Ameer of Jamaat, Shafiqur Rahman’s weekend meeting was held at the BNP acting chairperson and Khaleda’s son Tarique Rahman’s residence in Kingston, London. Tarique and the Jamaat’s Nayeb-e-Ameer, Syeed Abdullah Muhammad Taher, were also present at the talks.
The leaders tried to play down the importance of the meeting. “It was a courtesy call. Since Begum Khaleda Zia has not been keeping well for some time, we wanted to inquire about her health,” the Jamaat leaders told the Bangladesh media. Most observers, however, believe it to be more than a courtesy call and see a political agenda behind the talks.
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The high-profile meeting took place at a time when there is growing disillusionment in the BNP about the interim government headed by Mohammed Yunus’ performance and attempts to delay the parliamentary elections.
More importantly, the two parties are meeting amid growing apprehension among Sheikh Hasina’s political detractors that Yunus’s failure paves the way for the ousted Prime Minister’s return and revival of her party, the Awami League.
Hasina, the longest-serving prime minister of Bangladesh, was overthrown in August when a student protest turned into a public insurrection and drove her out of the country. She and many senior leaders of her Awami League have taken shelter in India since.
The BNP and the Jamaat are both diehard Hasina rivals and dread the thought of her return to power.
Observers in Bangladesh point out that the BNP, the second largest party in the country, fancies its chances of coming to power in the absence of Hasina. A major reason for its angst against Yunus stems from the fact that the party sees him delaying the election believed to be held by the year-end.
Yunus, a noted economist of global standing, was brought to head the interim government after Hasina’s departure. He has insisted that elections can be held after a thorough reform of the political system, which by most estimates cannot be completed before the year end. Yunus has indicated that elections can be held between December and July 2026. The BNP fears a July deadline will be further delayed because of the monsoon in Bangladesh.
A delay in holding the election will hurt the BNP’s image. It is finding it difficult to keep the rank-and-file away from getting into factional fights over control of lucrative trade unions and other unofficial businesses that have traditionally been money spinners for the ruling party. But after Hasina, different factions of the BNP are involved in fights over their control.
In the wake of Hasina’s departure, the Jamaat took the initiative of bringing Bangladesh’s Islamist parties together for a grand coalition and turning the country into an Islamic State to be run under strict Sharia law. Most Islamist parties agree with the concept of turning Bangladesh into an Islamic state. But the bigger and more powerful ones—the Bangladesh Islami Andolon and the Bangladesh Hefazat-e-Islami—are keen to lead the Islamic movement themselves, instead of giving the leadership role to the Jamaat, the third largest party in the country.
Jamaat and BNP alliance
The Jamaat-e-Islami was a powerful and influential party since Pakistan’s creation in 1947. It enjoyed prominence as the eastern wing of the party in East Pakistan province and was a vehement opponent to the creation of Bangladesh when it split from Pakistan in 1971.
The Jamaat was banned by Bangladesh’s first President, Mujibur Rahman. But after Mujib and most of his family were assassinated in August 1975, the Jamaat staged a comeback and from 1979 onwards was allowed to participate in political activities by BNP’s founder Ziaur Rahman, who was then in control of Bangladesh.
After Zia’s assassination, the Jamaat became an alliance partner of the BNP under Khaleda’s leadership. Briefly, Hasina also allied with the Jamaat but the two grew apart as putting the Jamaat leaders on trial for war crimes during the liberation struggle of 1971 became her main political plank.
Jamaat Ameer Shafiqur Rahman’s presence at the London talks signals the party’s strategic pivot as it weighs alliance politics over leading an Islamist front.
| Photo Credit:
PTI
The BNP, which lacks the required muscle power for street protests, has forged an alliance with the Jamaat since 1999, as its cadres are regarded to be more militant than the others. The alliance served both parties well and survived years of struggle against Hasina’s Awami League.
It however, began to loosen after Hasina was thrown out of power by the Islamist-dominated students. The Jamaat leadership thought of forming a joint Islamic front rather than continue its alliance with the BNP, since its image in the public was exceedingly tainted.
Observers say that the changed political scenario has now posed a new set of challenges before the Jamaat and the BNP and forced them to find ways to renew their earlier alliance. “The compulsions of coming together are dictated by developments within both the BNP and the Jamaat,” says Dhaka-based political commentator Altaf Parvez.
According to Parvez, the liberal section in the BNP, led by Tarique Rahman, wants a more business-friendly and open image of the party. But conservatives in the party are keen that it retain its image as a pro-Islam party and maintain ties with partners like the Jamaat-e-Islami.
Parvez argues that Jamaat’s overtures to other Islamists for a grand coalition now seem unlikely to turn into a reality. Moreover, the Islami Andolon and Hefazat have already been engaged in talks with the BNP for an electoral alliance. This has raised fears in the Jamaat leadership of getting isolated in the next election unless it forms an alliance of its own with the BNP.
Yunus’ overtures to Pakistan
Meanwhile, Yunus has reached out to revive old ties with Pakistan and, with his Islamist-dominated interim government, is keen for a rapprochement between Dhaka and Islamabad. A number of trade and economic delegations’ visits between the two sides have paved the way for closer defence and security ties in recent weeks between the two countries. Both sides are also trying to start regular ships and flights between the two countries.
The Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar is scheduled to visit Bangladesh for talks next week and his visit will mark a revival of dialogue at his level after 2005.
Yunus has visited China and met President Xi Jinping and other senior leaders in Beijing, where he also offered Chinese investors to set up a trading hub in Dhaka to take advantage of landlocked Nepal, Bhutan and India’s northeastern states.
He has also met Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif twice, though he is yet to visit Islamabad. India has watched these developments with concern and though Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Yunus on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit in Thailand last month and spoke about maintaining cordial and cooperative relations, Delhi is unhappy with the manner in which Yunus is opening its door to Pakistan and China.
China is a close strategic partner to both Bangladesh and Pakistan. But during Hasina’s rule she was mindful of India’s strategic interests and refrained from adopting policies that could jeopardise them.
Hasina and elections
Sections of the BNP leadership had reached out to India even when Hasina was in power in Bangladesh. But the dominant view in the Indian establishment was still wary of the BNP since India-Bangladesh relations experienced its most uncooperative period in their ties when the BNP was in power in Dhaka.
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From 2001 onwards, most joint venture projects were sidelined and anti-Indian forces with the help of Pakistan’s spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), were encouraged to operate from Bangladesh territory. The visiting BNP delegation tried to assure that if the party came to power, India could expect a more cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship.
In the absence of Hasina, sections of Indian policy planners may have toyed with the idea of doing business with the BNP if it came to power but the latest developments will now make them think twice before they reach out to the BNP.
The possibility of engaging the BNP had brightened after its alliance with the Jamaat had weakened. The Jamaat’s pro-Pakistan sentiments have been a matter of concern for Delhi and many experts think it was the dependence of the BNP on the Jamaat that allowed it to accept Pakistan’s enhanced activities in Bangladesh.
They point out that though it is not certain yet whether the London talks will lead to any meaningful cooperation between the BNP and Jamaat. However, the talks taking place when Pakistan is trying to increase its presence in Bangladesh will be viewed by India with some concern.
There is still uncertainty on whether Hasina and the Awami League will be allowed to take part in Bangladesh’s parliamentary elections. But the way things have been panning out in Bangladesh since her departure will make India hope for an increase in her party’s presence in the neighbouring country.
The extent to which the Awami League, if at all it is allowed to contest, in the forthcoming election will be watched with keen interest in India and other parts of the region.
Pranay Sharma is a commentator on political and foreign affairs–related developments. He has worked in senior editorial positions in leading media organisations.