The ouster of the democratically elected Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, and his party, Awami League, due to an orchestrated coup by the Bangladesh Army and supported by radical parties like Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) on August 5, 2024, following month-long agitation raised several questions relating to the domestic socio-political process in Bangladesh and the nature of the political development.
In this regard, one can draw a parallel between the spate of ‘colour revolutions’ that occurred in the post-Soviet space, namely, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, and Ukraine in 2004-2005, that to a great extent altered the geopolitical space of the post-Soviet Eurasia. It can be posited that the root cause of the present war between Russia and Ukraine is the regime change that occurred through the Orange Revolution. Similarly, the regime changes, also known as the Arab Spring, were carried out in West Asia and North Africa, starting with Tunisia and spreading to Libya, Egypt, and Morocco, which impacted domestic political instability and geopolitics in 2011.
The Arab Spring also contributed to the rise of radical extremist groups like the Islamic Brotherhood Movement into power, as happened in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Morocco. The reason for discussing the Colour Revolution and Arab Spring in the present context is to underline that though there was no symbol associated with the Bangladesh coup, unlike the two previous revolutions discussed above, one can draw many parallels between both revolutions in the present context.
Though the Hasina government was ousted from power through an orchestrated coup, Bangladesh achieved tremendous socio-economic progress under her leadership. For instance, Bangladesh’s Human Development Index ranking went up and stood at 129 in 2023-24 as per the data of United Nations Development Programme. Similarly, Bangladesh had also made tremendous progress in the education sector under her leadership.
The present political crisis in Bangladesh provides an opportunity to raise certain hypothetical questions that need greater introspection. These are:
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Is the present political crisis in Bangladesh “spontaneous” or orchestrated?
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What is the role of radical Islamist groups like the Jammat-e-Islami and Tablighi Jamaat in orchestrating the present political crisis?
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Will the present crisis stymie democratic development in Bangladesh?
These above-mentioned questions need further explanation to better understand the prolonged political crisis and its geopolitical consequences.
Radicalisation and Political Process
The present political coup in Bangladesh can be studied in the context of the growing radicalisation that has been taking place in the social structure for a longer period of time. The Quota strike carried out by the students is nothing but a pretext to fan radicalisation in Bangladesh. This actually gave strength to radical parties like Jamaat-e-Islami(JeI), which has been at the forefront of fanning radicalisation in the country for a long time. One can notice here, this radicalisation process has “shrunk” the space for the growth of a genuine democratic process in Bangladesh.
One may recall here that the radicalisation process in Bangladesh started soon after the overthrow of President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975. This marked the end of the route to democracy. Though the military took over after that, the military was not able to check the proliferation of radical JeI. B M Monoair Kabir, in an interesting article titled “The Politics of Religion: The Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh”, published in the edited volume Religion, Nationalism and Politics in Bangladesh, highlights that JeI, since its beginning, opposed the creation of Bangladesh.
As in the above article, Kabir writes that in the 1960s, “The Jammat failed in its objective of checking Bengali nationalism.” However, despite opposition from JeI, East Pakistan gained independence, and Bangladesh emerged in December 1971. Thus, Kabir writes that during the struggle for independence in the 1970s, “JeI and its student wing, Islami Chatra Sangha, actually carried out atrocities on the common people along with another radical organisation, al Badr”. The view of Kabir proves to be right if one looks at present-day Bangladesh politics as the JeI and its student wing are actually radicalising the entire body politics of Bangladesh.
Along with JeI, Tablighi Jamaat (TJ) is also fostering radicalism in Bangladesh. It has been observed by Yoginder Sikand in an article titled “ The Tablighi Jamaat in Bangladesh”, where he highlights how JeI and TJ operate in tandem, which has contributed a lot to the radicalisation of Bangladesh. It has been further observed by Sikand that, like JeI in the post-1975 era, TJ has also penetrated government departments, thus contributing to the growing role of the radical Islamist forces in the Bangladesh polity. It also needs to be underlined here that the Khaleeda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which was in power from 2001-2006 has also been co-opted by the JeI in the political process. Thus, the BNP actually emboldened the radical activities of the JeI. Studies suggest that JeI not only radicalised body politics but also played a major role in the upsurge of terrorism in Bangladesh. Some of the major terror groups of Bangladesh, like the Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami (HUJI) and Jamatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) owe their origin to JeI. Both terror groups have also been linked to global terror groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS. However, the Awami Party under Sheikh Hasina took measures against these radical and terror groups, which include JeI. In fact, many JeI leaders were hanged for their role in committing atrocities against the Bangladeshi population during the national liberation struggle in 2013.
Some of the strong measures that former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina undertook resulted in a growing resentment against her. In fact, just a few days before demitting office, she also banned JeI and its student wing Bangladesh Islami Chhatra Shibir, known for their radical leaning, as discussed above.
Impact of Radicalisation on Bangladesh politics
Bangladesh, over the years, because of the growing role of radical Islamist organisations, has transformed itself from a secular polity to a radicalised society. This is what Md Mizanur Rahman, in an article titled “The Making of an Islamist Public Sphere in Bangladesh”, underlines. To quote Rahman, “ Da’wa groups’ distinct self-identification that mediates into other aspects of life, madrassah’s absolute authority over social Islam and their activism, and Islamist political parties’ social and welfare activities combinedly construct an Islamist imagination and gradually claim a position in an otherwise secular public sphere in the country.”
Thus, the proliferation of radical and terror groups in the public space like JeI, Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT), TJ and other such splinter groups over the years have contributed greatly to Bangladesh’s radicalisation process. Along with the radicalisation process, the infiltration of the JeI cadres into the Army has also further accentuated the radicalisation process. It has been observed that the earlier coup attempts against deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina were made by radicalised Army officers. Thus, looking at the course of the political development, it can be underlined here that radical extremist groups took the upper hand in the politics of Bangladesh, thus posing a substantial threat to the secular fabric of the society.
Post-coup Bangladesh
After the coup, a new transitional political set-up came up, and Muhammad Yunus assumed the interim government’s head on August 9, 2024, with the support of the Bangladesh Army, JeI and BNP. Though he promised that there would be the restoration of law and order in the country and promised to hold an election within three months, it appears to be an uphill task for Yunus. It appears that the interim government will face difficulties as BNP leader Khaleda Zia will not accept Yunus’s leadership even for an interim period. Another important point that needs to be mentioned here is that the army and radical groups like JeI will not allow Yunus to function as they want an upper hand in the country’s politics. This will make Bangladesh’s political situation murkier, cause chaos in the country, and lead to what Samuel Huntington called the “institutional decay” of the political system.
The general public of Bangladesh will also not accept JeI in the political process. It is known that JeI and its student wing are the main patrons of the BNP and the interim government. Though Mohammed Yunus projects a moderate face, some of his dubious stands and recent speeches full of rhetoric concerning the present coup generate doubt about his intention.
At the same time, the middle class of Bangladesh will not accept him due to his involvement with JeI and BNP. In fact, the Bangladeshi people also rejected the BNP in the past because of its dubious credentials. Similarly, people will not accept army rule as they have the experience of General Ershad, who ruled the country for seven years with an iron fist from 1983 to 1990. So, there is also a general apprehension about the military rule in Bangladesh.
Impact on Minority
The worst sufferer in the aftermath of the coup in Bangladesh is the minority Hindu population. Bangladesh’s army has also failed to protect the Hindu population along with temples. This reminds of the situation in 1971 when hundreds of thousands of Hindus left Bangladesh (at that time East Pakistan) due to the Pakistan army’s atrocities. It is a known fact that both JeI and BNP are known for their hardline approach towards the minority community, particularly the Hindu population.
Hence, protecting the Hindu population was the most important task before the transitional government headed by Yunus. It is a fact that over the years, the Hindu population of Bangladesh has dwindled at a faster pace and currently stands at 8 per cent of the total population, as various studies suggest. This shows how the Hindu community has been under constant threat over the years. Thus, the primary task of the present caretaker Yunus government is to protect the minority Hindu community.
Conclusion
In a nutshell, it can be stated that the coup that shook Bangladesh was an orchestrated one. The coup that has taken place is more or less similar to political upheavals, which caused regime change both in the West Asia and North Africa (WANA) region and in the post-Soviet space in the past. The ouster of the Hasina regime only contributes to political instability and will lead to the growth of a theocratic state in Bangladesh. The situation will become more fragile as the BNP, JeI, and the military will have the upper hand in the political process. Looking at the political trajectories of Bangladesh, it can be stated that it is an unnamed ‘colour revolution’ similar to what happened in the WANA and post-Soviet space. The political crisis in Bangladesh is going to have larger geopolitical repercussions.
The author teaches at the School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.