New Delhi: The absence of Bangladesh’s Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) from Tuesday’s round of talks convened by the National Consensus Commission in Dhaka has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty into the country’s turbulent political transition.
While the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and other opposition parties joined the discussions, JeI’s decision to opt out – citing dissatisfaction with the recent joint statement interim government Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus and BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman in London – signals widening cracks within the opposition bloc. For India, which is closely watching developments in Dhaka, the sidelining of JeI – a party long viewed with suspicion in New Delhi – could offer both opportunities and risks as Bangladesh inches towards a potentially contentious electoral roadmap.
Citing a source within the commission, the Prothom Alo news website reported that JeI had informed in advance that it would not attend the meeting as it was dissatisfied with the joint statement issued following the meeting between Yunus and Rahman in London on June 13. The JeI believes they were ignored through the joint statement.
According to the report, the commission requested JeI to join the meeting, even two hours after it had begun. Apart from the BNP, the newly formed National Citizens Party (NCP), Islami Andolan, Nagorik Oikya, Gono Odhikar Parishad, Ganosamhati Andolan and other political parties participated in the meeting.
However, the NCP too has raised questions about the National Consensus Commission discussions, accusing Yunus of “leaning in favour” of the BNP.
“We raised concerns over the path the National Consensus Commission is taking and the method of selecting parties,” the Bdenews24.com quoted NCP liaison Ariful Islam Adib as saying. “Before Eid, we also questioned the Chief Advisor’s remarks as commission president.”
Bangladesh was thrown into political chaos after the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government in August last year in the wake of a students’ agitation in protest against job quotas that snowballed into a mass movement. Following Hasina’s ouster, the interim government was installed headed by Yunus.
The BNP and other political parties have been demanding that the interim government hold parliamentary elections at the earliest. But Yunus had been deferring this citing implementation of reforms in various sectors. Now, though, he has announced that the elections will be held any day in the first half of April 2026.
The conspicuous absence of JeI – one of BNP’s traditional allies – from Tuesday’s talks signalled widening cracks in the anti-Awami League camp. The JeI’s decision to boycott the talks, alongside mounting criticism from the NCP regarding the perceived pro-BNP bias of Chief Adviser Yunus, has thrown the credibility of the consensus process into question.
According to Bangladeshi academic and political observer Sharin Shajahan Naomi, the JeI has been maintaining a distance from the BNP in recent times.
“The JeI has understood that the BNP is not with it,” Naomi told ETV Bharat. “But it is a good thing as it shows that the BNP is getting reformed and more secular.”
Secondly, Naomi said that the military has been very proactive in the last few months to ensure security in the country. “This will ensure that Islamist groups cannot be proactive,” she said. “The JeI has realised that it cannot be influential at the Centre. There is decentralisation of JeI power.”
Admitting that it is difficult to have clarity on what is happening, Naomi said that the tipping point was the meeting between Yunus and Rahman in London.
“When Tarique Rahman suggested that the elections should be held in February next year, Yunus did not disagree,” she said. “This will not be liked by the JeI as it has been enjoying power.” Naomi also said that the NCP is alleging that Yunus is leaning towards BNP as it does not want elections soon.
“The NCP is politically immature,” she said. “We are going back to another political cycle. But it will be interesting to see if anything new happens between this cycle and the aspirations of the youth.”
The ouster of Hasina also saw serious deterioration of bilateral ties between India and Bangladesh. Now, with the latest political developments, the question is what will be the implications for India-Bangladesh ties. “Politics in Bangladesh is very fluid right now,” K Yhome, Fellow at the Shillong-based Asian Confluence think tank, said. “The JeI is trying to emerge as a key player instead of being a junior partner of the BNP.”
He said that JeI gaining ground is not a good sign for India. “India will be concerned as the JeI is influenced by Pakistan,” Yhome said, “Pakistan will use them. There will definitely be security concern for India.”
He said that various political forces are in play in Bangladesh now, and each of these is trying to create its own ground. He said that it will be interesting to see which way the Awami League constituency will go – the BNP or the JeI. “It is a murky situation out there,” Yhome said. “India will have to keep its guard.”
As Bangladesh navigates a volatile post-Awami League transition, the failure of parties like JeI and the NCP to engage meaningfully in the consensus-building process reflects the fragility of the political moment. For India, the stakes are high: a politically unstable or polarised Bangladesh could derail years of hard-won bilateral cooperation. With parliamentary elections looming in 2026, New Delhi will be watching closely – not just who participates in Bangladesh’s democracy, but who is pushed out.