From June 2024 to February 2025, private sector credit growth was just 3%, which is almost half of the same period the previous year. This means that no matter how much the government’s information department boasts of a “brilliant performance,” private investors are steadily losing interest. They do not feel confident about investing their money before the election.
In the meantime, foreign investment has hit a five-year low. In the first eight months of the fiscal year, foreign direct investment totaled USD 824 million, whereas it was over USD 1 billion in the corresponding period last year. Even the small increase in private sector credit flow raises questions as to whether it is actually being used for proper investment or productive purposes. Unemployment is rising and wage growth is failing to keep up with inflation. People are dipping into their savings to survive.
Between July and January of the 2024–25 fiscal year, net sales of national savings certificates were a negative Tk 70 billion. In fact, the trend of negative net sales in savings certificates began during the previous government due to high inflation. This government has been unable to reverse the trend. From July to February of 2024–25, capital goods imports dropped by 25%. This is reducing productivity and efficiency in the economy. As a result, Bangladesh is heading toward its lowest GDP growth in 36 years. There’s no “magic” at work here.
Most newspapers don’t publish false reports. But there has been a surge of substandard and often misleading reports in the electronic media, where there is no editorial supervision or professionalism. This is causing confusion about the real state of the economy. Economic indicators are like a patient’s temperature or blood pressure. The numbers require careful interpretation, not emotional overreaction or hype.
The Nobel Committee awarded Dr. Muhammad Yunus the Peace Prize based on the logic that Grameen Bank’s microcredit helped reduce poverty, which contributed to peace. So if such a globally respected figure were to be given administrative leadership of the country, it would be expected that poverty would decline, the economy would strengthen, and social harmony would increase.
However, according to the World Bank, around 3 million people will fall into extreme poverty this year. The national poverty rate is projected to rise to nearly 23%, reversing a long-term trend of steady decline. Our active home advisor might be the best person to speak on the matter of social peace.