NCP gains support as BNP, Jamaat’s popularity fall: Survey

Highlights:

• Interim government’s acceptability wanes amid instability
• Jatiya Party and other Islamic parties see dramatic drop in support
• Awami League support dips as undecided voter base grows
• Nearly half of voters remain undecided ahead of next polls
• 70% expect upcoming election to be fair and impartial
• Majority back holding election after political and electoral reforms
• Public split over ideal timing for next national election

A recent survey has found that while public support for the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami has declined, the National Citizen Party (NCP) has seen a slight increase in popularity.

Bite-Sized: What’s behind the dramatic shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape?

The survey, titled “Public Opinion, Experiences, and Expectations, July 2025,” was conducted jointly by Voice for Reform and the Brac Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD).

The results were released today (11 August) at the National Archives Auditorium in Agargaon, Dhaka. BIGD fellow Syeda Salina Aziz presented the keynote paper.

In a previous survey in October 2024, 16.3% of respondents said they would vote for the BNP. By July 2025, this figure had fallen to 12%.

In contrast, NCP’s popularity rose from 2% to 2.8%.

Support for Jamaat-e-Islami dropped from 11.3% to 10.4% over the same period.

Support for other Islamic parties also dropped, from 2.6% to 0.7%, and votes for other parties declined from 5.9% to 1.8%. The Jatiya Party saw a sharp decline in support, from 2.7% to 0.3%.

In October, 8.9% people said they would vote for Awami League, but the support fell to 7.3% in July.

An analysis of public support by age group shows that Jamaat-e-Islami holds the highest level of support among voters under 27, while nearly half (48%) of young voters remain undecided.

According to the analysis, Jamaat has 12% support in this age group, placing it ahead of the BNP, which has 9%. The Awami League, whose political activities are currently banned, has 7% support, followed by the National Citizen Party (NCP) with 4%.

Nearly half of voters remain undecided

A significant portion of voters remain undecided. In October 2024, 37.6% had not chosen a party; this figure climbed to 48.5% in July 2025. 

Additionally, 14.4% of respondents declined to disclose their voting preference, compared to 12.9% last October.

The survey was carried out between 1 and 20 July via telephone interviews with 5,489 men and women across all 64 districts.

When asked which party’s candidate was most likely to win in their constituency, 38% named the BNP, 13% Jamaat, 7% Awami League, 1% NCP, and 3% other parties.

Around 29% said they did not know, while 9% did not answer.

70% expect national polls to be fair and impartial

The poll also revealed optimism about the next national election.

About 70% of respondents believe it will be fair, free, and impartial, while 15% think it will not.

On the timing of the election, 51% supported holding it after thorough reforms, 17% after urgent reforms, and 32% by December 2025.

Around 12% preferred February 2026, 11% June 2026, while 25% opted for December 2026 or later.

In her keynote speech, Syeda Salina Aziz said, “Currently, the nature of the problems is multifaceted, and the one-sided impact of the economy on these problems has decreased.

She noted that the interim government’s acceptability has decreased due to deterioration of law and order, political instability, and unrest.

“People are looking for a solution to this instability in two ways: first, through elections, and second, through reforms. Although people are election-oriented, according to our results, a huge portion of the population is still undecided. The nomination of a suitable candidate can play a big role in voting,” she said.

Also present at the event were AKM Fahim Mashrur, co-convenor of Voice for Reform, and BIGD senior research fellows Miraz M Hasan and Asif Shahan.