Bangladesh’s economy is showing signs of a gradual recovery amid multiple challenges featured by the global uncertainty and the ongoing political uncertainty at home.
The Bangladesh economy is overcoming difficulties caused by the present political uncertainty and conflicting world scenario, according to Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
MCCI, the oldest chamber body, in its Review of Economic Situation in Bangladesh between January and March of the outgoing financial year of 2024-25, said the slow economic recovery from the headwinds had kept the growth in gross domestic products under pressure.
Referring Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the MCCI said that the country’s GDP growth rate in the second quarter of FY 25 was 4.48 per cent while almost all multilateral lenders projected less than 4 per cent growth for the full fiscal.
World Bank’s projected 3.3 per cent GDP growth, International Monetary Fund calculated 3.76 per cent while that of ADB was 3.9 per cent.
On Tuesday, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics released provisional data on the GDP growth for FY25 at 3.92 per cent.
BBS said the industrial sector would grow by 4.34 per cent in the outgoing FY25, compared with 3.5 per cent in FY24.
The agricultural sector growth will slow down to 1.79 per cent in the outgoing FY25 from 3.3 per cent in FY 24 and that of service sector will decline to 4.51 per cent in FY25 from 5.09 per cent in FY24.
The MCCI in its review said the performances of the selected economic indicators like inflation, exports, imports, forex reserves, and exchange rate would be mixed during the fourth and final quarter.
Exports may decrease in April due to extended public holidays (because of Eid) and then increase. Imports and remittances may increase in the next three months, said the MCCI.
The MCCI also said the foreign exchange reserve was likely to increase in April and then fall in May 2025 due to the Asian Clearing Union (ACU)’s payment for March-April period.
The inflation growth rate that eased in April is expected to go up slowly in May and June, added the MCCI.
Despite the sluggish pace, the economy is gradually moving towards recovery in the quarter under review (Q3 of FY25), said MCCI.
MCCI said export earnings and remittance inflows were helping to stabilise the foreign exchange reserves and revitalise the rural economy — factors which are contributing positively to macroeconomic stability.
Noting severe regulatory lapses in the banking sector and massive loan scams are delaying the macroeconomy recovery, MCCI hoped that recent efforts to reform the banking sector and restore public confidence in financial institutions would lead to reviving the GDP growth.