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With stakes high for domestic power dynamics and regional stability, the developments in Bangladesh demand scrutiny, particularly from neighbouring India
The escalating tension between Muhammad Yunus’s interim government and the BNP signals a turbulent period ahead. (Reuters)
Bangladesh is on the brink of significant political upheaval. The escalating tension between Muhammad Yunus’s interim government and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) signals a turbulent period ahead. With stakes high for domestic power dynamics and regional stability, the developments in Bangladesh demand scrutiny, particularly from neighbouring India.
Rising Tensions Between Yunus and the BNP
At the heart of Bangladesh’s political discord lies the clash between the interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, and the BNP, the dominant political force in the country. Following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, Yunus assumed leadership of an interim government tasked with implementing electoral reforms and facilitating free and fair elections. However, his reluctance to outline a concrete timeline for elections has drawn sharp criticism from the BNP.
The BNP, emboldened by its strong grassroots support and organisational strength, has been pressing for elections by the end of 2025 at the latest. Any delay, the BNP fears, could undermine its momentum and strengthen the newly emerging political entities being nurtured by Yunus and his allies. This includes the Anti-Discrimination Students’ Movement (ADSM), whose leaders are reportedly in the process of forming a political party with Yunus’s backing.
Yunus’s proposal to delay elections until reforms are complete, potentially into 2026, has further fuelled suspicions. BNP leaders view this as a calculated move to consolidate power and allow the nascent “king’s party” to establish itself. This manoeuvring has triggered accusations of bias and unethical behaviour, as the interim government’s primary mandate was to ensure a swift transition to democratic governance, not to reshape the political landscape.
The Role Of Islamists And Jamaat-e-Islami
Compounding the tension is the involvement of Bangladesh’s Islamist factions. The Islamists, including the Jamaat-e-Islami, have thrown their support behind Yunus, seeking opportunities to further their agenda under his leadership. In exchange, they have reportedly received tacit approval to intensify efforts to Islamise the country and target religious minorities.
The BNP’s confrontational stance toward the Jamaat highlights the growing rift between the former allies. By invoking the Jamaat’s controversial role during Bangladesh’s 1971 Liberation War, the BNP has sought to delegitimise the Islamist party. However, this strategy risks escalating street-level violence, as the Jamaat is known for mobilising its supporters in aggressive displays of force. With the interim government’s apparent alignment with the Islamists, the stage is set for widespread unrest.
Historical Parallels And The ‘Minus Two’ Formula
The current crisis draws parallels with the political turmoil of 2007-2009 when an army-backed caretaker government attempted to implement a ‘minus two’ formula—banning both the BNP and the Awami League from politics. Yunus’s government appears to be reviving elements of this approach, potentially sidelining the BNP and fostering the rise of alternative political entities.
The BNP’s leadership, including acting chairman Tarique Rahman, has categorically rejected such moves. The party insists that only an elected government can undertake major constitutional and institutional reforms. This principled stance underscores the BNP’s commitment to restoring democratic norms but it also sets the stage for a protracted power struggle.
Implications For Bangladesh’s Political Future
As the BNP ramps up its demands for immediate elections, the likelihood of mass protests looms large. Any attempt by Yunus to suppress dissent through state machinery could further erode his credibility and exacerbate public discontent. Simultaneously, the emergence of a new political party under the aegis of the ADSM risks fragmenting the opposition landscape, complicating the BNP’s path to power.
The role of external actors, particularly Western powers, cannot be overlooked. While Yunus enjoys considerable international support, his inability to stabilise the political situation and hold timely elections could prompt a re-evaluation of this backing. Western stakeholders, wary of Bangladesh’s descent into chaos, may pressure Yunus to expedite the electoral process.
India’s Strategic Interests
For India, the unfolding crisis in Bangladesh presents both challenges and opportunities. The political landscape in Bangladesh is marked by heightened tensions, particularly between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, and Islamist factions. Historically, India’s relations with the BNP have been strained due to ideological differences and the BNP’s association with anti-India sentiments.
However, recent diplomatic overtures have paved the way for improved ties. The BNP’s assurances to safeguard India’s interests and curb anti-India forces signal a significant shift in the bilateral equation.
In contrast, Yunus’s administration has been viewed with suspicion in New Delhi. The interim government’s alignment with Islamist factions raises concerns about the potential for increased radicalisation and instability along India’s eastern border. Furthermore, Yunus’s reluctance to engage meaningfully with India on key issues, coupled with his perceived bias against Indian interests, has strained relations further. This lack of cooperation has heightened India’s apprehensions about the broader implications for regional security and economic integration.
India stands to benefit from a BNP-led government, which promises greater stability and cooperation on key bilateral issues, including border management, trade, and counterterrorism. Supporting the BNP’s call for timely elections aligns with India’s strategic goals of fostering a democratic and secular Bangladesh. Such a government could also strengthen India’s Act East Policy, by providing a stable and cooperative neighbour that supports regional connectivity and trade initiatives.
However, overt interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs risks backlash and could jeopardise India’s long-term relationship with other political stakeholders in the country. Maintaining a balanced and nuanced approach will be essential for New Delhi.
The Path Ahead
Bangladesh’s political trajectory remains uncertain, with heightened confrontations expected between the BNP, Yunus’s interim government, and Islamist factions. This three-way struggle will shape the country’s democratic future and determine the balance of power in South Asia.
For the BNP, mobilising public support and maintaining organisational discipline will be crucial. The party must navigate the complex interplay of domestic and international pressures to secure its position as the principal political force. Yunus, on the other hand, faces the daunting task of justifying his prolonged tenure while addressing mounting criticism from various quarters, including civil society and political opponents.
The role of Islamist factions adds another layer of complexity to the crisis. These groups have historically sought to undermine Bangladesh’s secular foundations, and their alignment with the interim government raises concerns about the potential erosion of democratic values and human rights. The increasing influence of Islamist factions poses a challenge not only to Bangladesh’s internal stability but also to regional security dynamics.
As Bangladesh inches closer to a potential flashpoint, India must tread carefully. Strategic engagement with all stakeholders—including the BNP, the interim government, and civil society—will be crucial. India must articulate its expectations for democratic processes, regional stability, and the protection of secular values while avoiding actions that could be construed as undue interference. Quiet diplomacy, backed by economic incentives and security cooperation, can help India reinforce its position as a stabilising force in the region.
Additionally, India should work closely with international partners, including the United States, the European Union, and regional organisations such as SAARC, to ensure a coordinated approach to the crisis. By supporting a peaceful resolution and facilitating dialogue among all parties, India can not only safeguard its strategic interests but also reaffirm its commitment to a stable and prosperous South Asia.
In conclusion, the unfolding crisis in Bangladesh presents a complex mix of challenges and opportunities for India. By adopting a balanced and proactive approach, India can navigate this delicate situation, strengthen its bilateral ties with Bangladesh, and contribute to the broader goal of regional stability and development.
The writer is a technocrat, political analyst, and author. He pens national, geopolitical, and social issues. His social media handle is @prosenjitnth. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.