Bangladesh’s export earnings from the US market could increase by over USD 2 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year due to the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States on China and India.
Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office made this projection while speaking at a discussion titled “Macroeconomic Challenges and a Way Forward” at the Economic Reporters Forum (ERF) auditorium in Paltan on Saturday (30 August).
The event was organised by the ERF as part of the Moazzem Hossain Memorial Lecture. Moazzem Hossain is the late editor of the English daily The Financial Express and the founding president of the ERF.
Bangladesh is now in a suitable position after settling tariff talks with the US, and the export sector will boom gradually, Zahid opined.
Though the economy got stabilised, the situation at the household level has deteriorated, with poverty and inequality on the rise, he said.
According to Zahid, the restored economic stability is primarily due to the removal of those responsible for previous instability.
“Money laundering from the country has stopped, resulting in a significant decline in hundi and an increase in foreign currency inflows,” he said.
Meanwhile, looting within the banking sector has halted. Yet, the true condition of banks has not improved, as defaulted loans continue to rise, he pointed out.
He also highlighted the impact of international developments favourable to Bangladesh’s economy, particularly the notable decline in the value of the US dollar.
Addressing the role of policy, Zahid asserted that policy has not contributed significantly to the current stability.
“However, there has been a shift in economic management, with greater discipline introduced in policymaking. Still, this does not imply that all government decisions are correct.”