With the ouster of Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League government in August after 15 years of rule, the country’s political landscape and diplomacy have taken a new turn. Hasina was closely allied with India, where she remains in exile, and her removal has led to a cooling of this relationship. At the same time, Bangladesh’s previously strained relationship with Pakistan, which had worsened over the past 15 years, has started to improve.
This shift has sparked mixed reactions, as the memory of the 1971 Liberation War and the genocide committed by then-West Pakistan against then-East Pakistan continues to influence public opinion. Some welcome the renewed ties, while others oppose the development.
In the past six months, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the chief advisor of the interim government, has met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif twice, while he is yet to meet face-to-face with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Additionally, Pakistani diplomats in Dhaka have been particularly active following the political transition. Cultural exchanges have also flourished. In December, renowned Pakistani qawwali singer Rahat Fateh Ali Khan performed twice in Dhaka to packed audiences. Furthermore, in November and December, two cargo ships carrying commodities arrived at Chittagong port – the first such arrivals since the 1971 war.
During Hasina’s tenure, Bangladesh leaned heavily towards India, aligning its foreign policy with New Delhi’s interests. The relationship was marked by extensive trade, infrastructure development, and security collaboration. Although for the past two years anti-India sentiment grew rapidly among the civilians of Bangladesh. Meanwhile, relations with Pakistan remained cold, with minimal diplomatic interaction. Historical grievances, including Pakistan’s refusal to formally apologise for the 1971 war atrocities, deepened the divide. Tensions were further exacerbated by Bangladesh’s war crimes tribunal, which prosecuted individuals for crimes committed during the war. Pakistan strongly opposed the execution of Jamaat-e-Islami leader Motiur Rahman Nizami in 2016, calling the trials politically motivated. This led to formal protests and heightened diplomatic tensions.
Since the political transition last year, trade has become a key focus of development between the two countries. However, bilateral trade remains imbalanced, favouring Pakistan. Notably, between August and December 2024, bilateral trade increased by an estimated 27 per cent, with both nations exploring ways to diversify trade into areas such as construction materials, food products, pharmaceuticals, and information technology, and Pakistan aiming to increase annual trade with Bangladesh to more than four times the current level within a year. The apex trade bodies of both countries signed a memorandum of understanding on 13 January to establish a joint business council.
Since 2018, there have been no direct flights connecting the two countries. For years, Pakistanis faced significant challenges in obtaining Bangladeshi visas, as strict security clearances from multiple state agencies made travel practically impossible. However, Bangladesh’s interim government has lifted these restrictions, while Pakistan has responded by waiving visa fees and security clearance requirements for Bangladeshi travellers.
Moreover, both countries are trying to increase education collaboration. The government of Pakistan in December decided to offer 300 fully funded scholarships in various disciplines in leading universities to students from Bangladesh.
In addition to economic, cultural and education ties, defence cooperation between Bangladesh and Pakistan has seen significant developments since the political transition. In January, senior military officials from both nations convened in Rawalpindi to discuss regional security dynamics and opportunities for joint military exercises, training programs, and arms trade. Pakistan’s military described the two nations as “brotherly countries”, signalling a potential to reshape South Asia’s security landscape.
According to some reports, one notable development has been Bangladesh’s interest in acquiring JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan. These jets, jointly developed by Pakistan and China, align with Bangladesh’s ongoing modernisation efforts under its “Forces Goal 2030” program, aimed at upgrading the country’s military assets. But such a defence relationship is likely to impact South Asian geopolitics, particularly given India’s historical influence over Bangladesh’s defence and foreign policy. The closer ties between Dhaka and Islamabad are already a concern to India, which views Pakistan as a long-standing rival.
Furthermore, China’s role as a strategic partner to both Bangladesh and Pakistan adds another layer of complexity, as Beijing’s involvement in arms transfers and infrastructure development could strengthen this trilateral axis. These developments may alter the regional balance of power, compelling India to reassess its own diplomatic and military strategies in South Asia.
In the meantime, Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson of India’s Ministry of External Affairs, said in a weekly media briefing when he was asked about Pakistan-Bangladesh defence cooperation, “We keep a close watch on all the developments happily in our neighbourhood that pertain to our national security. We monitor all these developments.”
The watching brief will doubtless continue.