Bangladesh’s Constitution Reform Commission, set up by Chief Adviser to the interim government Muhammad Yunus, has proposed dropping three fundamental principles: secularism, socialism, and nationalism, and replacing them with equality, human dignity, social justice, and pluralism. The commission has recommended retaining ‘democracy’ in the preamble.
If implemented, these changes would mark a major shift in Bangladesh’s constitutional identity. Secularism and nationalism, in particular, reflected the country’s divorce from Pakistan, a state founded on theocratic principles.
While the inclusion of ‘pluralism’ could be a fig leaf providing cover for the exclusion of secularism, it exposes a profound departure from earlier constitutional framework—one that has already manifested in violence against Hindu minorities.
Bangladesh’s growing dependency on China
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Notably, Bangladesh’s relations with Pakistan and China have been warming. There has been an exchange of visits between military leaders from Pakistan and Bangladesh. In January, Lt Gen SM Kamr-ul-Hassan, the second-in-command of the Bangladesh Army, visited Pakistan and reportedly met with Pakistan Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir and Lt Gen Sahir Shamshad Mirza, the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee.
Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations said that they held extensive discussions on the evolving security dynamics in the region and explored avenues for enhancing the bilateral military cooperation. An invitation to the Pakistan Army and the ISI to visit Bangladesh was also extended.
Following the meetings, a Pakistan military delegation—which supposedly included ISI chief Lieutenant General Asim Malik and three other Maj Generals—visited Bangladesh on 21 January. What would have certainly raised hackles in India were media reports suggesting that the delegation visited Rangpur district, located near the Siliguri Corridor, also known as the ‘Chicken’s Neck’, a narrow slice of land that connects the Northeast to other states of India.
The officials were also scheduled to visit the Chittagong Hill Tracts. While there is some dispute over whether the delegation was indeed headed by the ISI chief, the visit by Pakistani officials to these two highly sensitive regions in Bangladesh—in terms of India’s national security—have not been contested. Overall, the ISI’s visit signals a cause of concern, raising questions about the potential motives and implications of such engagements.
Last week, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, who went to the US for the swearing-in ceremony of President Donald Trump, said he had a brief discussion on the current situation in Bangladesh with the newly appointed US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. Though he did not divulge any details, the fact that Bangladesh figured in the discussion is indicative of India’s concerns.
New Delhi’s concerns are magnified by China playing a strategic role in Bangladesh. On 21 January, the Advisor for Foreign Affairs of Bangladesh’s interim government, Touhid Hossain, made his first foreign visit and met China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. Yi expressed China’s readiness to join hands with Bangladesh and carry forward traditional friendship, strengthen strategic communication, and advance strategic cooperative partnership. Hossain remarked that friendship with China is a cross-party consensus in Bangladesh, supported by successive governments and the entire nation. Bangladesh was one of the first South Asian countries to sign the Memorandum of Understanding on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a key project for expanding China’s geopolitical influence.
Bangladesh has been going through an economic downturn since the internal unrest began two years ago. It owes China $5.57 billion, which is about nine per cent of its total external debt. China is the fourth-largest lender to Bangladesh. During the Hossain-Yi meeting, China agreed to provide relief by reducing the interest rate on loans from 2-3 per cent to 1 per cent and extending the period of repayment from 10 to 30 years. This gesture expands China’s geopolitical influence through the BRI. China also assured Bangladesh of its continued support for economic and social development.
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Ominous signs for India
One could clearly expect increased dependence of Bangladesh on China. Considering China’s quest for expanding its influence in South Asia in the context of its global geopolitical struggle with the US, India will have to be wary of how China utilises its growing proximity to Bangladesh.
China could use its growing ties with Bangladesh to keep India contained and, in particular, leverage the porous borders of the Northeast to foment internal instability, especially in Assam, Nagaland, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya, and Manipur. Manipur’s ongoing ethnic strife provides fertile ground for such machinations.
With the recent visit of Pakistan’s ISI officials to the areas of the Siliguri Corridor and the Chittagong Hill Tracts, the signs for India are ominous. India may have to deal, in due course, with both Pakistan and China using Bangladesh territory for inimical activities in the northeastern states.
India could expect a shift in Bangladesh’s ideological orientation, away from the secular outlook of its Constitution. Of course, the actual course that the country adopts will be witnessed after national elections which are presently scheduled for late this year or early 2026.
The internal churn in Bangladesh expands India’s threat spectrum and could open a third continental front. India must be prepared to deal with the potential adverse situation. The synergy of China-Pakistan-Bangladesh is potentially a serious security threat that calls for India’s security planners to first and foremost take whatever internal steps required to stabilise the northeastern states and avoid providing generative grounds for exploitation.
Externally, the challenge is to use India’s political, diplomatic, and strategic tools to prevent Bangladesh from being used by China and Pakistan. China’s economic and strategic clout and the growing Pakistan-Bangladesh proximity combined with deteriorating relations of India with the three countries is the crux of the threat. Also, India-Pakistan relations have shown no signs of improvement. Though efforts to repair India-China ties are underway, the state of relations will remain hostage to the shadows of geopolitical tensions in the US-China rivalry. This is going to be a major challenge and the writing is on the wall.
Lt Gen (Dr) Prakash Menon (retd) is Director, Strategic Studies Programme, Takshashila Institution; former military adviser, National Security Council Secretariat. He tweets @prakashmenon51. Views are personal.
(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)