New Delhi: With Nahid Islam, a key member of the interim government in Bangladesh, quitting his post on Tuesday to be part of a new political party envisaged to be formed within this week by the leaders of the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement (ADSM) and the Jatiyo Nagorik Committee (JNC), India will be watching with keen interest the political developments in its eastern neighbour.
Nahid played a key role in the July 2024 students’ revolt against perceived discrimination in government job quotas that snowballed into a mass uprising leading to the ouster of the Awami League government headed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. On August 5 last year, Hasina fled from Bangladesh and took refuge in India. Three days later, an interim government headed by Nobel laureate and renowned economist Muhammad Yunus was installed in Dhaka.
The new interim government included key figures from the student movement, such as Nahid and Asif Mahmud, reflecting a commitment to address the protesters’ demands. The primary mandate of this interim government was to draft a new, inclusive constitution and organise general elections to restore democratic governance.
However, despite the interim government’s efforts, Bangladesh has faced ongoing turmoil.
After resigning from the interim government on Tuesday, Nahid said that his role in consolidating the July uprising forces would be more effective outside the government than within it.
“I can play a bigger role on the streets than in the government, to consolidate the forces that partook in the mass uprising,” the Dhaka Tribune quoted him as saying during a press conference in Dhaka after he tendered his resignation. “I want to work with people, not in the government. What can be done with people is not possible while staying in the government. Besides, I prefer to be on the streets for politics.”
On Monday evening, the JNC and the ADSM, of which Nahid was a leader, during a media briefing, said that they would be announcing the formation of a new political party on February 28 during a rally in Dhaka.
Leaders from both the ADSM and the JNC had launched a public opinion campaign called ‘New Bangladesh in Your Eyes’, which commenced on February 5. The initiative sought to gauge public sentiment regarding the formation of the new political party. According to Akhtar Hossain, the JNC’s member secretary, more than 200,000 people had taken part in the survey by Sunday afternoon.
According to reports in the Bangladesh media, several names associated with the July uprising were suggested for the new party, including Janatar Dal, Notun Bangladesh Party, Biplabi Cal, Nagarik Shakti, Chaatra Janata Party, Bangladesh Biplabi Party, Republic Party, and Jatiya Shaakti, among others.
The emergence of a new political force in Bangladesh, backed by student leaders and civil society groups, will be closely watched in India due to its potential to realign the country’s foreign policy.
Since gaining independence in 1971, the country’s relations with India have fluctuated based on the ruling party’s stance. While some governments have fostered strong ties with New Delhi, others have taken a more adversarial approach.
The Awami League, Bangladesh’s oldest political party, had maintained a generally favourable relationship with India, largely due to New Delhi’s support during the 1971 Liberation War.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), currently seeking early elections following the ouster of the Awami League regime, has historically been more sceptical of India, advocating for a stronger national identity independent of Indian influence.
The Jatiya Party, founded by military ruler General Hussain Muhammad Ershad in 1986, has historically taken a centrist stance, balancing relations with both India and China.
The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) is a right-wing Islamist party that opposed Bangladesh’s independence and sided with Pakistan in 1971. It has been a controversial player in Bangladeshi politics, often accused of fostering extremism. The JI has historically maintained an anti-India stance, opposing secular policies and advocating for stronger ties with Pakistan.
During the BNP-Jamaat coalition government (2001-2006), India accused JI leaders of sheltering extremists and fostering cross-border militancy.
The party’s political influence has diminished since 2013, following the banning of its registration and war crimes trials against its leaders.
It is in light of all this that New Delhi will be wary of a political transition that could empower groups advocating for a less cooperative stance with its eastern neighbour.
According to Bangladeshi academic and political observer Sharin Shajahan Naomi, the new political party envisaged to be formed by the ADSM and the JNC is likely to be leftist-liberal with a strong Islamist influence.
“The way they ran the movement against Hasina last year was very similar to Maulana Abdul Hamid Khan Bhashani’s subaltern politics,” Naomi told ETV Bharat.
Maulana Bhashani’s political tenure spanned the British colonial India, Pakistan and Bangladesh periods. He was popularly known as Mozlum Jananeta for advocating for the poor. He gained nationwide mass popularity among the peasants and helped to build the East Pakistan Peasant Association. Owing to his political leaning to the left, often dubbed Islamic socialism, he was also called ‘The Red Maulana’.
At the same time, Naomi said that the students’ uprising last year was also similar to the 2013 Shahbagh protests that were fuelled by the call for the execution of the convicted war criminal Abdul Quader Mollah. Previously sentenced to life imprisonment, Mollah was convicted on five of six counts of war crimes by the International Crimes Tribunal of Bangladesh. Mollah supported West Pakistan during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War and played a crucial role in the murder of numerous Bengali nationalists and intellectuals.
“What I can see is that the proposed new party is unlikely to have the 1971 Liberation War spirit,” Naomi said.
Questions then arise as to what the chances of the new party would be if parliamentary elections were to be held in Bangladesh now.
“Chances for the new party will be very little if the elections are held in a free and fair manner,” Naomi said. “It is difficult to say whether the interim government will hold elections soon. The law-and-order situation in Bangladesh is deteriorating fast.”
As far as India is concerned, she said that the rise of the new party might cause concern in the short term but it might not have a long-term impact.
However, an Indian expert on Bangladesh politics and economy was of the firm view that the rise of this new political party should be a major cause of concern for New Delhi.
“This new party is being formed by elements from Islamist forces like the Hizb-ut-Tahrir,” the expert told ETV Bharat on the condition of anonymity. “They are going to hold rigged elections that they will claim and free and fair. Once they enter parliament, they will try to change the country’s official language, culture, flag, constitution, legal system and the country’s identity as a whole.”
The expert expressed the view that India should take proactive actions as a changing Bangladesh will be a threat to regional stability.